82 billion dollars

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Originally Posted by MarkB

Careful, there's going to be 3 crashes ... the first pretty much happened. The second .... Q4 2020 or Q1 2021. Third well into 2021.
First was based on fear/panic in anticipation of COVID impacts. Second will be based on real business impacts ... insufficient orders, lots of bankruptcies ... Third is when massive layoffs are done, and savings are chewed through ... then we get into massive delinquent debt, and personal bankruptcies ... that's when property is going to tank.

I hope I'm wrong ... but I'm going to wait and see what happens. If property crashes ... might be time to invest. Got to be patient though...

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Definitely careful! I've seen "safe" companies disappear (Nortel) or go belly up and the assets bought (People's Jewelers).

As for the crashes... usually the summer is a dead or drop time... the old idea was spring out and fall in if I remember right what an investor said once. It is likely when the payouts end there will be alot of businesses gone. My friends restaurant is going that way, no income, not enough deliveries to reopen, sold for 1/4 what he thought it should, according to the real estate agent if he had sold it end of 2019.

Patience is relative though, Index stocks like HFU are short time and watch but they are 2X, just today it went up almost 10%, the idea being to watch and you see 2 or 3 days of sharp down buy the UP (HFU) and several days of sharp up buy the Down (HFD)....hoping it doesn't keep going in the original direction. In, make money, out! The bank stocks are a different strategy, see them drop, watch, when they flatten out buy and forget you hold them and suck up the increase and dividends for years.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MarkB

Careful, there's going to be 3 crashes ... the first pretty much happened. The second .... Q4 2020 or Q1 2021. Third well into 2021.
First was based on fear/panic in anticipation of COVID impacts. Second will be based on real business impacts ... insufficient orders, lots of bankruptcies ... Third is when massive layoffs are done, and savings are chewed through ... then we get into massive delinquent debt, and personal bankruptcies ... that's when property is going to tank.

I hope I'm wrong ... but I'm going to wait and see what happens. If property crashes ... might be time to invest. Got to be patient though...

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Question is what is your money doing in the meantime? if your parking it in cash, then thats great, as your not losing it but your not making anything either. If your in the market, then what will be left of it in a year from now?

The problem I'm seeing is that nothing seems to make any sense. In the past when jobless numbers came out and it was not good news, the markets would react poorly. Today, the jobless numbers come out and we are talking millions of unemployed, and the markets skyrocket????

I mentioned, in relation to people thinking the economy will surge back, that it wouldn’t.

It might be one of those few times Newton’s law of physics and for every action, doesn’t apply.

https://business.financialpost.com/n...box=1587135137

I'm one of those who believe the economy will bounce back. It might take a little bit longer than from most recessions but I think its the guys whose house is paid off, guys who make a good salary, pensioners with decent savings or regular pension income that determine the future of an economy, not the Tims or McDonalds workers. There's still lots of money out there and it will get spent whether its done over the course of a year or compressed into a few months when this ordeal is over. Hope I'm right for once.

The stocks dont have to be back to where they were to make huge gains. For instance look at air Canada be before this happened the stock hovered high 40 low 50s dollar per share. It dropped to a low to 12 something a share. It is now up back to 18 if you buy it under 20 and gets back up to 40 in the next year your doing ok. Maybe it it will be longer. It still wont be up to its normal for a while . Who knows they could end up bankrupt aswell. Lots will go under many wont


Lots of other stocks fell to 75 percent losses they dont need be back where they were if they stay afloat. Netflix has only gone up since this it will crash soon lol.


Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

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Originally Posted by huntervinni

Question is what is your money doing in the meantime? if your parking it in cash, then thats great, as your not losing it but your not making anything either. If your in the market, then what will be left of it in a year from now?

The problem I'm seeing is that nothing seems to make any sense. In the past when jobless numbers came out and it was not good news, the markets would react poorly. Today, the jobless numbers come out and we are talking millions of unemployed, and the markets skyrocket????

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I think it's a mistake to be 100% in one thing (cash, stock, commodities, property, etc). Also have a bit of each, and you just change the proportional amounts based on market conditions. Should always have some cash (or access to credit) for good bargains. If everything is humming along, I've been told a good target is 1/3rd property, 1/3rd stocks/shares and 1/3rd cash/monetary/commodities (gold, silver). That may change depending on where you are in life ... I certainly feel for retirees ... not easy for them right now. But if you have time for market recoveries ... best to think long term.

In terms of making sense ... it's hard right now ... because things are moving so fast. You have "what has already been factored in" and I think the job losses was expected. The cash injection from the governments ... that seems to be partially factored in, but it was more than expected ... so that took the cake and stocks went up ... but at same time, will this last? Don't know, but I find it hard to believe governments are going to be able to pay their way out of this economic downturn. Let's assume average global tax is 25% ... and they burn at least 2/3rds of that on operating costs (salaries, etc) ... so what's left? 8%? So 8% of GDP is what you have available ... and that gets chewed up by other expenses (health care, police, education, etc) .... but let's assume 8% is what they have to play with .... how do you fix a 30% drop in GDP when you only have 8%?

I won’t get into the day trading, technical trading discussion.

If your timeline is longer and you watching the banks. Don’t try to time the bottom. Watch the dividend yield.

Div rate/share price.

As the price per share drops, your yield increases. In 08 I went very long some bank stocks. I didn’t care about “price”. They are considered low risk because their volatility is low. Not what you want as “day trader”.

I was getting over 7% yield, from the dividends.

If your into watching the indexes, understand at least a little what delta and beta are.

Just seen Cargill meat packing plant in Alberta closing. Employees sick.
This is not good

I don’t pretend to be a stock market expert but I think it would be useful to go back and see what the markets did after the 2 world wars. This won’t last as long as the wars did but technology accelerates everything now. People don’t wait for the newspapers to supply news, good or bad.
I also think that we can’t call what is and will happen very effectively. Goal posts move daily, mostly politically biased shooting from the hip as people deal with this. There seems to be signs of life with some jurisdictions talking about restarting the economy. Dunno.

I just looked at my investments I’m above end of November numbers. I’m happy and I have a few pennies