Moose Points are now posted

As mentioned by a few already, it will take a couple of years for things to make sense.

Those who have a lot of points already will get drawn and buy tags, and then go to the back of the line.
The rest will then get their chances based on their points and after having their turn, will move to the back of the line as well.
In about five to ten years those hunters with lower number of points now will move up to the front of the line slowly, as they continue to accumulate points by applying regularly every year in the meantime.

Hard for all of us to see it now, but let's hope things will settle and MAKE SENSE by 2030.
We all complained about the "old system" for years so now we have "something different" and can only hope that is more fair than before!

I don`t moose hunt but have been following moose hunting threads for years.
I understand populations are down so shouldn't the main concern be to increase or at least maintain the current population. Maybe I have missed it but I haven't read or heard a MNRF plan for that. I guess my point is, If you one can`t identify what you want to accomplish, how can you accomplish it...
Hope it works out for the hunter and the herd, best of luck to all applying....

The Ontario moose system had to change for a multitude of reasons - and that's coming from someone who had the good fortune to draw (solo) a bull moose rifle tag in 63 in 2019.

What we have now is a pure preference point system. The person who enters the tag allocation system for that year with the most points gets the tag in WMU X.

I would have preferred to see a hybrid preference point system where 90% of the tag allocation goes to the highest point holders and 10% goes into a random draw where everyone (regardless of point status) has an equal chance of pulling a tag. Rewards those waiting, still gives a chance to newcomers.

Most American western states have one of the two systems above for big game tags.

Most people are not going to be moose hunting every year. Frankly, most people shouldn't have been moose hunting every year for a while now - shooting calves was always a terrible idea and I believe some (most) of our population decline can be pinned on it.

Hopefully the new system provides fairness and clarity to applicants (you're going to know after this year the number of approximate points you will need to hunt WMU X), reduces some pressure on the moose population, and lets the calves walk to (hopefully) become adult moose.

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Originally Posted by outdoorlife

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The thing about those statistics is that they are based on tags allotted to the guaranteed group size and the next largest group. Individuals were awarded tags in the third step of the draw.

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Originally Posted by buckchaser

The Ontario moose system had to change for a multitude of reasons - and that's coming from someone who had the good fortune to draw (solo) a bull moose rifle tag in 63 in 2019.

What we have now is a pure preference point system. The person who enters the tag allocation system for that year with the most points gets the tag in WMU X.

I would have preferred to see a hybrid preference point system where 90% of the tag allocation goes to the highest point holders and 10% goes into a random draw where everyone (regardless of point status) has an equal chance of pulling a tag. Rewards those waiting, still gives a chance to newcomers.

Most American western states have one of the two systems above for big game tags.

Most people are not going to be moose hunting every year. Frankly, most people shouldn't have been moose hunting every year for a while now - shooting calves was always a terrible idea and I believe some (most) of our population decline can be pinned on it.

Hopefully the new system provides fairness and clarity to applicants (you're going to know after this year the number of approximate points you will need to hunt WMU X), reduces some pressure on the moose population, and lets the calves walk to (hopefully) become adult moose.

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The only way that they can state with certainty how many points are required is if they build in a buffer. They can’t say with absolute certainty how many hunters will apply in each unit. They can probably figure out hunter loyalty to a particular unit and they will have stats on the distribution of points and corresponding demographics. For example, let’s say it “should” take 10 points (based on past draw info) to earn a bull tag in WMU “X”. Let’s also assume that the hunter fidelity rate in that unit is 90%, and they know that there are many hunters who have 15+ points. The MNR then crunched the numbers and says that probable number of points required is 13. The draw happens and it turns out that hunters with as few as 9 points get a tag.

As you said, there will never really be a “guaranteed” point number for a tag because the MNR cannot predict application trends. The value in the previous year’s data will be to provide a general indication for the current year of application.

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Originally Posted by buckchaser

The Ontario moose system had to change for a multitude of reasons - and that's coming from someone who had the good fortune to draw (solo) a bull moose rifle tag in 63 in 2019.

What we have now is a pure preference point system. The person who enters the tag allocation system for that year with the most points gets the tag in WMU X.

I would have preferred to see a hybrid preference point system where 90% of the tag allocation goes to the highest point holders and 10% goes into a random draw where everyone (regardless of point status) has an equal chance of pulling a tag. Rewards those waiting, still gives a chance to newcomers.

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I thought I read that one of the last stages of the Ontario draw will be a random allocation?

That is true - but realistically how many tags will still be available at that point? The most desirable/easily accessed WMUs will almost certainly not have tags available in the final stage random draw.

On the flip side of the patterns for draw %, You are going to have hunters study the charts after the 1st year to see if there are any changes in draw #.
So, you see a WMU you don't hunt but is in the area you scout and hunt, just for instance with 100 bull tags and 300 people applied last year for a 33% success rate.
Your preferred WMU had 100 bull tags and 1800 people applied so you had only a 5.5% chance of drawing.
I could see next year large numbers of people changing their WMU choices and hoping for a better chance at winning the lottery.
I think it is going to be a gong show for a few years with wild swings in draw percentages for different WMUs as hunters look to get an edge, and that is if MNR even keeps tags available at the same numbers they are now.
John

Its going to be a very interesting year.
Sure would be nice to see some draw numbers before we purchase.