Real-estate market 'almost at a crisis situation'

People blame "banks" and while I certainly can't refute the opinions, accusations. I have slightly different perspective. There isnt enough money and gold in the world to cover the debt, not even remotely. Plu these days its one big huge "bird nest", the domino effect we just got a small taste in 2008.

supply/demand.

whether its consumer, corporate, municple, sovereign debt. All they, we do is meet demand. In short, its not the banks, financial institutions. Its the beast with the insationable appetite to live beyond its means. Supply liquidity. The day that gets cut off. Goodnight Irene.

Capital reserves are being increased here, as is more stringent stress testing and even CHMC.

I know of a house that that sold in Arthur last night for 35k over asking price. In Arthur. And it wasn't even renovated. One of our neighbours is a realtor. She says that 3or 4 years ago houses sold for just below, to maybe 10k below list and took at least 30 days to sell, sometimes 45. Now they are gone same day over asking. Go figure. I'm not selling, although I could make a mint. I'd have to move out to Harriston to buy a really big lot cheap.

... well this article doesn't bode well for my future wife and me, getting married this September 2017. I'm moving from my parents to her apartment in Oshawa. I've been looking at these prices and demands in Durham region, its unrealistic to get a decent house, townhouse or even a condo at sustainable price. I've been searching with limited success to develop my IT profession in the past 3 years that I had to start driving as a commissioned courier to put food on table and save up some money for a wedding. but the down payment and house?

Worst part is, I would have to leave my hunting gear with my dad because the current apartment where fiance stays is a co-ed with questionable people; especially when landlord has access to your apartment.

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Originally Posted by poltrojan

... well this article doesn't bode well for my future wife and me, getting married this September 2017. I'm moving from my parents to her apartment in Oshawa. I've been looking at these prices and demands in Durham region, its unrealistic to get a decent house, townhouse or even a condo at sustainable price. I've been searching with limited success to develop my IT profession in the past 3 years that I had to start driving as a commissioned courier to put food on table and save up some money for a wedding. but the down payment and house?

Worst part is, I would have to leave my hunting gear with my dad because the current apartment where fiance stays is a co-ed with questionable people; especially when landlord has access to your apartment.

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If you need help with the Durham real estate market research,my daughter is one of the best in the business. PM for details if you need help finding a decent place.

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Originally Posted by JBen

The insanity has just continued, no different than when I said goodbye to the insanity of life in the GTA this time last year.

Looked at a number of places, as far east as Newcastle/Bethany. No different back then. I really knew just how insane things, people were when we found one place outside Port Perry we liked. It was reasonable and we were hoping in a tiny little pocket in the middle of nowhere it might not go insane.

It did. Forget the numbers
These young couples are also going in firm. given the bidding wars if their bank has only pre approved X, they are on the hook for anything else over and above...
No inspection ( could be bad, especially rural properties) Imagine finding some old Oil tank in the ground 6 momhts later or the foundation.....
No Septic ( could be very expensive)
No Well ( holy crap)

When and how will it all end?
who knows.

Even if rates stay low for a long time (and they could given things)
Think about how much Interest your losing over 10 years on mortgages of 500,000 -800,000

yeah we have certainly made a fine mess of things.

The place we did find. Not sure what I did right in life to have it drop in my lap. Tucked away in a tiny little pocket even I didnt know existed (helped a ton) and somehow miracoulsy no other bidders. It hit the market Friday, my offer was in only hours later...They still insisted on waiting the time they are allowed, and i get it, who wouldnt....But the gods smiled on me that day.

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Some sanity left in the Ottawa market - prices are actually dropping in suburbia. Still nuts in the downtown and trendy areas though.

I tried a bully offer on a place in Hamilton yesterday. I went 50 grand over list, no conditions (no inspection, no financing, etc), and didn't get it. Trying another place today and going 50 over again. Wish me luck! It's like winning the lottery and when you win you get to over pay for a house.

Last5
This may or may not help you. It certainly helped us ultimately. I was extremely disciplined, in part because I know what I know ( my background, familiarity with financing, credit etc). I trust my agent implicitly, I hope you have a good one. It's not often but has happened over the years (I've used her a few times over the years) where she picked up on some small thing, that I didn't see, that had her sharing her head no......walk away....

Despite the insanity out there and it's everywhere now, different regions (pockets) have different dynamics. I can't speak to the pocket your shopping in, but....

Typically it's going to go like this.
Monday to Friday: Your going to look at 20-50 new listings. Then go see the 2,3,10 that you can see yourself living in.
Sat-Sun: See more of them, while they are holding their open houses.

The vast majority of places hold offers until the Monday, some Tuesday to create the bidding war.

So of the 5,10,15 houses that drew your attention that week. Sunday night your going to have to decide which one your going to bid on Monday. Along with everyone else out there that is in the exact same boat you are in. If you win it...woooohooo, if someone else wins it.

Your starting from scratch Tuesday morning. Because all the other houses you considered last week have sold.
wash/rinse/repeat until you get to the point where your willing to throw caution to wind, and everything you can at it.


Some houses, you just know are going to go into an insane bidding war. Not necessarily dollar wise, but you just know theres going to be 5, 10, 15 people putting bids in. Your odds of winning are 1 in 15. And if you don't get that Monday night
wash/rinse/repeat

Option b (every bit as nice, has what you need/want) but maybe it doesn't have the same amount of bling ( kick ask kitchen, or renod bathroom with bling) which you can do in a year, two time..
Hmmm, with everyone going for option A, maybe I'll sneak in and get option B at a reasonable price
*******

Try to find the place each week, thats the "sleeper"

And during the week, make a list of the two, three houses that most interest you. Categorize them by their "offer date".... aka

Monday: These 10 are accepting offers
Tuesday: These 4 are accepting offers

And be prepared.

ideally you find that rare person thats selling and isn't trying to create a bidding war by holding offers until "X" as I did. They still have 48 or 24 irrevocable hours. Which means you put your offer in right away, and then have to wait 24-48 hours to see if anymore offers come in.

its BS and this is where the real estate industry and agents are to blame.
Its a game, a game they've created. Know the rules, and turn as much as you can to your advantage.
The majority of would be buyers don't.

Going nuts here in Peterborough. We have 2-storey houses in our area that are 3-yrs old w/ unfinished basements listing (and selling fast) at over 1/2 million. Think the latest one to hit the market (mind you finished basement) is over $600,000.

Makes me wonder what our house is worth now - I am sure we have made at least $100,000 in the 3-years we have been here (not that we are planning on selling). Once the 407 extension hits to 115 I expect prices to climb even more here.

Problem is if you sell you need to replace it w/ something that is overpriced. I'll stay put.

Jben I've been looking for months and I've been interested in a grand total of 4 homes now. They just aren't out there and this is the problem. The place I'm putting an offer on today is nice and I'm confident it's in great shape. I even had a chance to talk to the owner (younger family looking to upgrade) and everything has been done/upgraded and not with low end stuff (appliances,HVAC, windows, etc.). This isn't a flip but rather a lot of pride and sweat equity over the last few years. My agent seems pretty good. He always picks up on the negatives first. Putting an offer in today conditional on inspection or financing won't cut it. Forget conditional on selling your present place, but some people still think they can do this.

And the rental market is just as bad, if not worse in ways J.
I'd have to know specifics ( how much can you put down, how much financed, etc, etc) but the reality is for most people if they can't put minimum 30% down and depending on sale price 40%.... your monthly rental >>>>>>Mortgage + land taxes

Thats something else you want to be aware of when I said every pocket has its own dynamics and some places you just know are going to go into insane bidding war. Know who your likely to be up "against" and determine which house will increase your odds of winning.

Is it a small house with a basement apartment?
Your up against investors looking to buy and rent it out.....have fun winning that house

Is there a "starter home" in the same pocket thats close to a school
Your going to be up against couples with young children...........

Is it a modest home, thats not close to a school, can't have a basement apartment put in...
Your competition just dropped by 70%, and likely your only going to be bidding against older couples looking to downsize