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Re Crisis.
Does it really matter if that question is definitively answered?
What we do know, is that deer are down. In some areas maybe a little, maybe a lot.
I don't know, maybe just me but when I have what we called in our business a brushfire, we did things to make sure it didn't become a forest fire, and one thing we would never do is throw fuel on the fire.....
just saying.
IMO, bad winters are just one factor - as I said before, happened before and the deer herd weathered it just fine - actually grew, so what is different now for the last 10 to 15 years ?
Why is it that just south of the border in NY and Pennsylvania they still have tons of deer despite harsher winters than our own?
By the same token, coyotes have always been around - yes there may be more of them now because of the dog like protection they have enjoyed in recent years.
My opinion is that it comes down to management of the herd that is the problem. Doe tags too easy to get and multiple tags available for years - in many cases doe only. This had the desired effect of drastically reducing the herd.
The scarcity has been engineered by design IMO. For some reason, they do not want too large of a herd.
You must mean like the winter of 71/72 and the deer herds in (and around APP). They've never recovered, not even close.
*****
I'm not sure how much we can look at history,because at no time in history has the climate been changing nor the ecology as much as it "today". And I don't anybody that can predict the weather for this year, let alone the next 5-10-15. Let alone climate change and what that might do to habitat.
Consider central Ontario and the snow belt that starts around Parry Sound, south down the Bruce and SE across through Barrie/Simcoe into towards Lindsay ( North of Durham). For every inch or so Durham might get, the Snowbelt.......How much might that change one way or the other (lake effect)
Then
As I said.
Just look at the growth in the Muskokas/Kawarthas the past 15 years.
Or around the GTA, particularly now to the East and North East. (Orono is going to explode, PTBO) the wind farms are going in now and so much more.
10 years ago Barrie was still a sleepy little "cottage" town. Now it's the outer (if not Orilla) edge of the city. The projections for growth are somewhat insane.
Do agree that the protection predators have been and are getting (whether thats bears, wolves or Coyotes with different degrees of impact) makes a person shake their head. Like adding fuel to a small fire...
Good point Jben - I agree, urban "sprawl" has put a lot of pressures on the deer in those areas.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
So why would the MNR want to increase deer "hunting opportunities" in those areas by making doe tags easier to get and issuing multiple extra doe tags instead of doing the opposite. IMO this is to discourage hunting in those areas and to reduce deer / people related complaints like vehicle collisions
Lol, was just about to type an "addendum" because reading through my reply, gave me the impression it was "coming across wrong".
As many have said and "argued" it's very most likely a handful of things.
Tag allocations: We can speculate the possible reasons. We do know the MNR historically has been
Reactive, rather than proactive. I think the majority of people agree that the gutting of tags through Central Ontario was needed and a good thing. Prior to that, we can speculate they were issuing a ton of tags to.
A) Raise money
B) reduce herds
c) buy votes
d) who knows. :)
I am "hopeful' that for a change the MNR is becoming a little more "pro-active". The changes ( if a person can get through the buzz words and bafflegab) in the EBR might appear to reflect that. The parts that delve into "Cervid Zones" and other, might seem to suggest that.
First and foremost all wildlife will change as the "landscape" around them changes. Im sure when the ice age hit for example everything went south. In a nutshell, as the land, climate and habitat around them changes, so does carrying capacity.
Consider many of the main lakes in the Muskokas/Kawarthas. 10-15 years ago, cottages were still cottages and small sleepy towns were just that. Today, cottages are homes. Entire subdivisions with modern day homes are going in. From Sturgeon just north of Lindsay to Chemong and Buckhorn just NW of PTBO....Hows that effecting not only displacement but the water........Everything relies on water.
Snowbelt: and possibly the Morraine.
Snow pack determines the spring run off, determines how much water the aquifers get, determines the water going into creeks, and into lakes........
Who knows.........
The winter of 2017 is predicted to have a lot of snow (relative term). Largely due to "climate change". The Great Lakes are warmer, and as a result they are (were) predicted a lot of snowfall this winter. So far, they've been right and its only early January.....
Next year
10 years from now?
who the heck knows...
And we have all that urban Sprawl, especially now to the E and NE.
As the ecosystems change, carrying capacity will change. Maybe the next 5-10-20 years has the Lakes warming up and thus, the winters may be milder (gradually warming)....A lot more snow...Maybe tons more. Where will they go???
Don't know.
especially with all that urban growth occurring just below the "heart of Ontario"
I doubt anyone really knows
I don,t think the snow amount is a big deal for deer. When I came here in mid 70,s we had much more snow, that has been getting less and less every year. I would worry more about the heat and swamps drying and well,s drying out,all that took place this year in my zone. At the same time deer get a boost, farmers are planting more corn giving extra feed.It all balances out, but coyotes are a major problem and in my zone Moose who compete with deer for browse. I know it takes a lot of discipline but all of us hunters and especially veteran hunters who have taken a fair variety of deer need to be more selective and give deer a pass.I know that concept is particularly hard on those who have limited opportunities and limited places to hunt.
From page 7 Gilroy.
From a guy who maybe more than just an authority on the subject, given his work in the Loring yards and MNR.
He started in 1952 going were he was sent, including to forest fires in the Cochrane and Chapleau areas before finding a position closer to home after finishing Ranger School in 1959. The timing was important because the two following winters would be some of the most severe he would see in his lifetime and the province’s deer population, including the Argyle herd, was devastated.
“We had snow stations we would go check with four-foot stakes in the ground and I would have to put my ruler on top of the stake to get a depth measurement,” Bain said. Bain learned firsthand what a hard winter could do to a deer herd and remembers finding animals that had stepped off the trail looking for twigs and branches to chew on.“We just had snowshoes then, no snowmobiles, but I had seen where deer stepped off the trail to get something to eat and they died standing in the snow. They couldn’t move,” Bain said. The wildlife scientists at the time thought Ontario might lose 50,000 deer during the winter of 1961.“I think we lost way more,” Bain said, adding he believes the two winters combined to take out about two-thirds of the local herd."
http://www.northbaynipissing.com/new...-deer-country/
Have we had other years with lots of snow?
I'm sure we have. Who knows what other factors may, or may not have been present. Will they "survive". I'm sure they will, they always have. Will they bounce back? I'm sure they would eventually if there are no other contributing factors. They didn't following the winters of 71/72 in and around Algonquin where perhaps habitat loss at the time, and wolves......
See also Fenelons post on page 2 of the other link with respect to snow stations and the winter of 2013.
Look not saying a whole lot one way or the other, theres just way too many variables and unknowns ( mainly climate change and what will do) but also a lot of sprawl and human encroachment. More than ever in history.
What we can safely say is that their numbers in C Ontario are down (unless someone can produce evidence to the contrary). Deep snow and harsh winters can crush a herd. And theres hard evidence of that in the 50s, 70s, and 2013 14.Also from history it might seem its back to back harsh winters. Maybe other years have been bad, but the year right after?
We know the climate is changing, warming. This should reasonably change quite a few things and barring drastic warming, winters in C Ontario should still be below freezing, but if the Lakes warm a couple degrees. The Snow Belt could produce even more snow.
We also have dogs growing in numbers and being protected.
I don't know, but given I spent 20+ years in risk management, one basic thing.
Don't make things any worse, prevent bush fires from becoming forest fires, and don't do anything that could back fire large by throwing fuel on the fire.
In short during times of upheaval, change, uncertainty.
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
For decades the mnr (including Bain) managed deer yards for wintering deer. They snowshoed, snowmobiled and during periods of heavy snow depths, bulldozed trails to make it easier for deer to travel and access for the purposes of the winter deer feeding program. Workers went in and cut trees to allow access to browse. In summer they went in and clear cut areas so new growth would generate providing browse for the deer.
These activities have stopped. The deer yards now grow naturally and I think are maturing to the point where they are very limiting in the amount of feed available to the large influx of deer that migrate into them because there is limited new undergrowth in mature forests. Add to that the practise of selective logging and quickly putting out forest fires and the forest is possibly overmaturing meaning less new growth for deer browse.
This all helps lead to the limiting of deer populations during periods of extreme winter conditions in my opinion. Along with the affect of predators, dogs at large, hunting, disease, loss of habitat due to human encroachment and road kill.....it's a tough life for the critters .today
Makes a lot of sense...
Quote:
Originally Posted by redd foxx
This ^^^^^ would be my take on the situation at large.Quote:
Originally Posted by redd foxx