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What amount of points do you have and what WMU do you plan to hunt in 2021?
Since the MNRF is not sharing hunter points required to draw a tag for specific WMU’s, it would be interesting to hear what board members might have and where they plan to hunt.
I have 5pt will try WMU 53
That kind of sounds silly, wishing you moose hunters the best possible outcomeQuote:
Originally Posted by atstube
Good luck
We need all the luck we can get.....so thank you fratri
MNRF can’t share information they don’t have !! Next year, maybe.Quote:
Originally Posted by atstube
I have zero points as I got the tag for our group last year. Applied anyway. Hopefully somebody in our group has enough points to get a tag. If not, maybe a grouse hunting trip
MNRF doesn’t have no data to share because this is the first year of the new point system. I think most hunters will apply in the WMU with most tags with access.Quote:
Originally Posted by atstube
I think a lot of high point Central Ontario hunters will apply to hunt in their own backyard instead of humping all their kit up to Geraldton "because you can get tags"
Yes because they know where the moose are - in their own back yard. There are no moose near Geraldton.Quote:
Originally Posted by contaucreek
How can the MNRF not know how many points you will need to get a tag or at least a general idea for each WMU based on history..... Maybe I am missing it but shouldn't they already have that data available to them in their little computer system.....
Using the data from previous years, (how many applied vs tags allocated) it should give them an idea..... I am sure if some computer IT had a few minutes, they would could come up with some formula that would input all previous data collected over the years and spit out a number.....
I think a lot of high point Central Ontario hunters will apply to hunt in their own backyard instead of humping all their kit up to Geraldton "because you can get tags"Quote:
Originally Posted by Ahuntr300
X2-with both statements .
They could have gotten moose tags ,already if they were to move.That is how they got their high points in the first place-now the system will give many ,a chance.
Definitely many moose are reported seen below the French River,so may make some sense.
Some may move though, but many will not.
I was also surpsised ,there is not a "rough"guideline for the number of points needed.
There is no data from previous years. They know how many hunters applied for the allocated tags, but that’s about it. The old system went by Pool 1 or Pool 2 applicants, and how many Pool 1 hunters it took to get a given tag, based on group sizes. There will now be no group applicants.The points based system is totally new.Quote:
Originally Posted by fratri
After this year going forward, there will be data to indicate how many points it took, in any given WMU, to get a given tag.
[QUOTE=gbk;1154540]I think a lot of high point Central Ontario hunters will apply to hunt in their own backyard instead of humping all their kit up to Geraldton "because you can get tags"
X2-with both statements .
They could have gotten moose tags ,already if they were to move.That is how they got their high points in the first place-now the system will give many ,a chance.
Definitely many moose are reported seen below the French River,so may make some sense.
Some may move though, but many will not.
gbk,
I agree.
I believe that the mandatory surveys are working. We, as a group, saw multiple adult moose in 49 while deer hunting last Nov. The moose numbers are high and I believe they are reading the reports for a change.
Maybe you are right but wont their data from previous years determine how many points each individual has, then based on which WMU they applied in the past give them a percentage..... Anyway, I guess who cares.....Quote:
Originally Posted by rick_iles
Wishing all you moose hunters the best of luck...
They will now know haw many points hunters have. So in the case of a bull tag, they will take the hunter with the highest point total, and award a tag. If there are multiple hunters with the same point totals, they will get a tag as well, until the allocation is awarded. At least, this is my understanding of the process. It will be interesting !Quote:
Originally Posted by fratri
6 Points, hope to hunt 21B applying for a Bull Tag
Sooooo, if you have 50 hunters with 23 points in an WMU apply for a bull with only 30 tags available, how will that be figured out? Will they do a lottery, go to local hunters first, personal favors to someone who knows someone in the MNR?? Have not seen this explained yet.
John
Yes a tie will go in a draw. Everything is laid out in the multiple information packages they sent out.Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjyb
Sent from my SM-G925W8 using Tapatalk
Actually-while not impacted, I was scratching my head how the scenario will unfold for the "balance"of the 20(50-30=20).Quote:
Originally Posted by rippin_355
What will happen to them....?
There was not much info for this.
I would think the guys left out will have a good chance the following years, until that pool of high points applicants have been eliminated. The guys that got tags are pretty much out of contention for several years....Quote:
Originally Posted by gbk
Quote:
Originally Posted by gbk
If I understood correctly, if those guys had also applied for the second and third choice in a different WMU, they might still have a good chance at getting a tag.Quote:
Originally Posted by rick_iles
There is no way to definitively determine who is going to get a tag prior to the draw. Ever. In any year now or in the future. Points are not linked to a WMU.
Say I have 20 points. I apply to whatever unit.
The draw happens and everyone with 21 points gets a tag. I do not.
The next season season, I apply to the same unit. Say there is 50 bull tags available.
Well then say that 50 people who didnt apply to that unit the previous year with more points then me decide to apply for it this year. I still wont get a tag.
Because the points arent linked to a specific unit, there is literally no way to determine an exact cutoff for a tag. You can predict and best guess based on previous years, but it is not a definitive answer.
You are probably right ,as stated above.Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_saber
Now-knowing all this, how the new system will then be more fair then the old one was(as many stated-i do not mean ,You)if it will literally become a simple Lottery?
In the areas with low tag numbers and high applicants, its going most likely essentially be a lottery.Quote:
Originally Posted by gbk
But ANY area has the potential to be a lottery. People with high tag numbers will dictate who gets the tags in any given year in any given WMU. Where they choose to apply is the question. MNRF cant tell you beforehand where those hunters are going to apply. Its impossible.
so the guys with the most point can decide which WMU they hunt in basically.
the system seems better than old, but not perfect. dont think there is a perfect one.
Yes, I agree. Its better. We'll see how it works in practice. After 5 years or so I think we'll have a pretty good idea how things work in reality as opposed to on paper.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ata83
Calling it a "lottery" in any sense is wrong. It's not a lottery. It prevents repeat winners until the last person has won.Quote:
Originally Posted by gbk
If you feel a need to put a name on it, it's 'round-robin'.
This isnt exactly true.Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
A guy could get a tag in one unit with a high points number, apply for say 5 years and get a tag in a different unit if 5 is enough there. Person B who had less points to begin with and has accumulated points over that 5 year span but hasnt changed units could still be a tagless.
The lottery aspect is because its presumed in the high interest units that there will be a lot of years of people tied with a bunch of points that exceed the tags available. At that point they do go into a lottery to see who gets them (75 applicants with 20 points for 50 tags, for example).
I’d call it a “waiting list”. That’s basically the best way to understand how this is going to work. Your current points determine your position on the waiting list....ties to be broken by random draw...Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
I am interested in the same general info as you atstube. Too bad this thread didn't stay on topic. It seems to have trailed off without focusing on the original question you posted in the first sentence. ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by atstube
Its not the first time that focus drifts from the original question and it won't be the last.
Im sitting with 6 points.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BullHunter
Lottery=sheer luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
The system as we know today, does not give any indication of what is needed to get a tag , when there will be a time to hope and to"expect "a tag.
.
Since ,as it was stated many times-there is no set point threshold known, it will be nothing but a luck(based on willingness of many to apply-or not ,to a WMU.)
For years to come.
Pay your money take your chances
I think that is what some hunters may be looking for. Each year the stats would state what the minimum group size was for a tag. Going forward, I would expect the MNRF to post what the minimum number of points was required for each category (bull/cow/calf) in each WMU. Of course, the first couple years will be a wash because all the high point hunters need to get flushed from the system.Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_saber
Again, they can never predict this. Its impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by delmer
At best, they could you you a guess. And Id be shocked if they did that.
Heres my post explaining why. Its impossible to determine. Cant be done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_saber
And to the OP, 5 points will not get you a tag in 53. Knock me over with a mouse fart if it does.
That unit is likely looking at a number above 15, if not 20. Too close to the GTA, too few tags, too many hunters.
They won’t predict success rates, but they can post how many points it took to get a given tag, in each WMU....Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_saber
The MNRF has already stated what data they will display for the following year. Check Page 73 of this years regulations. I believe by the third season or so under this new system the numbers they display will be a good representation of what to expect.
As for me I have 1 point. I applied to a non-desirable tag and if our group doesn’t get anything better I am happy to give up a point to go try our luck and have a fun trip.
Sure, they can, but its completely irrelevant moving forward. Its entirely dependent on who applies to what unit and the number of points they have. The previous year number will have zero impact on the following year.Quote:
Originally Posted by rick_iles
I think the second allocation stage could see lots of tags available. If I was running a group in an area with lots cow tags, I would put the highest point hunter in for bull, then put everyone else in for cow and claim it with the lowest point successful hunter. Would let several go unclaimed.....
Oh there’s definitely good strategies that will come in play if you don’t mind travelling and don’t care about what tag you get.
IMO it’s a way better / fairer system, at least now I know I will eventually get a tag instead of winning in a lottery which I’m not too lucky at.
I have 9 points and will apply for a gun Bull tag around the Timmins area.
I have 5 points and will apply for an archery bull tag as I do every year. Not sure which area I’m applying in but doubt it matters....
Quote:
Originally Posted by rick_iles
That is exactly what I am alluding to.Quote:
Originally Posted by CD94
The MNRF never predicted anything. They just published the stats from the previous year. Lots of groups applied in different WMUs year to year based on what the previous year's numbers showed. But now, instead of it being a group that applies to a unit with a lower number, it will be an individual.Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_saber
21 points. Applied for a bull gun tag for unit 47 where our camp is. No desire to apply for a cow or calf tag or to go further North. There's 3 of us with the same points, so we'll only take 1 tag a year if we're lucky enough to get picked and maybe enjoy a few years of moose hunting.
It's only based on luck where you are a tag holder with enough points to get a tag in a WMU.Quote:
Originally Posted by gbk
If you're a tag holder with 20+ points in most WMUs, you will get a tag.
Sort of surprising to have to explain to hunters what is and isn't "luck".
I'm guessing a lot of you think that every guy who nails a once-in-a-lifetime buck every year or two is "lucky".
Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
Consistently successful investors (and hunters and fishermen as noted above) understand that probability and luck are largely unrelated concepts. If you understand the rules of probability really well and can interpret trends you'll be far "luckier" than everyone else over the long run.
With regard to hunting luck - one of the old gun writers noted that "Luck" is simply the intersection of preparation and opportunity.Quote:
Originally Posted by outdoorlife
I just bought my tags and entered draws online. Great system, no problems whatsoever. Very anxious to see on how it will all unfold.
I have 4 points and applied for a cow/calf tag in 56. Don’t expect to get anything.
I don't expect a tag for likely 10 years. I have 9pts and apply to 28 as that is where our hunting property is. I will keep applying for a bull tag, having more points than the other guys I hunt with. Talked to a neighbor last fall when we were up for a bird hunt. He had drawn a bull tag and it was 18 years since his last one. So I'm ahead of 1 guy for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilly
Werner-i generally agree with most of your posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
I guess we do not have to agree on everything.:)
Few things ,just on the side the luck "theory"
Moose hunt-one can have as many point as possible can-and can apply to the hardest seeming WMU,to benefit from the reat many points he have-Yet has zero control over how many other hunters with the same points will apply. No one will know that-ever.
Plus the MNRF may /will change points needed for certain WMU due of high interest by a drop of a hat.
Blasted Saber made a very good rundown on this.
About the luck: one can be dedicated as much as one can afford to be, and have all the opportunity he wants-if the buck of a lifetime was just shot by the neighbour. Or was ran over by the fire truck.
Here is a story about how much luck is needed to do very well:
I have a buddy-local guy,accomplished deer hunter.Has many kills-mostly archery.He harvested i would say anywhere of 6 nice bucks, somewhere 140-160 point .Many ,well over 100 points.......
He does not care much about those things,so i can not tell You all the scores....
He did not get skunked ever since i know him(over 26 years)
His work makes him work with many farmers, from Toronto east-Windsor west ,plus he has many farmer work colleagues.
Thus he has acess to acres and acres of deer habitat-with zero dedication/preparation and opportunity.Just a little chat....
He gets 2-3 prime spots ,and gets on them exclusive hunting opportunity (he is buddy with the owners one way or another).He got this ,since none of them ladnowners hunt, and has families with zero interest in hunting. Luck...?
Exclusive right from coworker on prime land-how much work ,dedication and preparation is involved, other then asking for permission.
He gets them prime spots selected- where is lack of food(more bush then fields)and then he simply BAITS.
With free bait from his farmer buddies-he owns a city dwelling.Luck to get unlimited free bait..?
Then ,depending on the day-he sits in one of the 3 stands he has,and watches the bait.
Then goes out 3-5 times before he harvest a bucks. Many times that buck was a nice one.
He could wait for that super nice one-as much as he wants.
We can discuss this as long as we want-but other then him being a good hunter(he knows his stuff ,and proved many times on bear and moose as well)good shot ,what else did he have to do to be so successful?
To get lucky with his profession-which opened the door for all the other stream of luck.
If we want to go back to the "once in a life time buck harvested every 1-2 years"-we lack of description what that may mean (and it will mean whole lot of different thing in
Pay for use Public land in Southern Ontario - exclusive farms-big forest of the great North, or farmland heavily hunted yearly by driving deer.)Heck,even the geographical location will make a difference in the buck antler size.
Unless we settle on some score -like 180 typical,or some solid measurable like that,to each hunter that term will mean something else.
I read a lot of them books, and watched a lot of really big names in deer hunting on Youtube or on Videos,, and while many harvested many great bucks,yet the once in lifetime deer is still elusive for most of them. Especially elusive every 1-2 years,regardelss how much they "prepare and take the opportunity."
Unless they hunt those very exclusive properties and/or gamefarms,where access is greatly limited,and the deer is groomed to grow big antlers.
If we call harvesting a great buck on them properties a great thig-yes, but if we want to make harvest scores from there to be a hunting success benchamark-hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
At the end-i do absolutely agree with:work hard,get dedicated,spend a lot of time,show love for the sport.Then ,maybe then-succes will follow.
With some consistency.
Here’s a story about luck. A guy can go out and set up several trail cameras on 160 acres of land from May to December and only get photos of 120-130 inch class bucks. Based on what he has seen from his cameras, he might reasonably conclude that there aren’t any huge bucks around. Regardless, come November, he goes out to his stand one morning in the dark and loses his bearings because he forgot his flashlight. He stumbles around in the dark and finally finds his stand as legal hunting hours starts. As he settles his sweaty butt in the tree stand, he accidentally drops his Fanny pack which hits the ground with a thud while spilling the contents all over the forest floor. As the frustrated hunter sits there and marvels at the day so far, a deer approaches his position. The hunter fumbles while loading his rifle and drops his clip to the ground. Oblivious to all of this, the deer continues its approach and the hunter manages to feed a cartridge into the chamber. As he shoulders the rifle, he gets a glimpse of bones as the buck stops and turns broadside at 50 yards. The hunter settles the crosshairs on the deer’s chest and squeezes the trigger. At the sound of the shot, the buck crumbles in its tracks. It’s not until the hunter gets down and stands over the buck that he realizes how large the buck actually is... 255 field dressed with a 165” rack! The hunter had intimate knowledge of the property which gave him an understanding of how the resident deer used it. This knowledge helped him pick stand locations. Although he had 4 trail cameras out, he never once photographed that buck. The obvious reason is that the property wasn’t part of its home range. This is an example of a lucky hunter.
What I like about hunting is that there are so many variables that can’t be controlled and anything can happen on any given day... and that’s the way it should be.
Werner, BTW, if a guy is getting a “once in a lifetime” every one or two years, I would argue that these bucks are run of the mill; at least for that hunter. Regardless, with that track record, he’s not lucky but a skilled hunter.
Lastly, I have 4 points and applied for a tag. I don’t expect to get a tag with my first choice but am hoping that I may get lucky when they get to the second and third choices in the second allocation stage.
PROBABILITY VS LUCK:
fisherman A and fisherman B go trout fishing together all the time. Use the same bait, same technique. Fisherman A uses 4 lb test and #12 hooks. Fisherman B uses 12 lb test and #4 hooks.
One day fisherman B catches 5 fish, fisherman A catches one. Fisherman B says “I told you none of that crap matters, fishing is just right place, right time.”
Over 25 years and 1000 fishing trips, fisherman A outfishes fisherman B 5:1. To take it further, it would then be “probable” (not lucky) that from the 5 biggest fish these two ever caught, Fisherman A would catch approximately 4/5 of them.
We have a small moose gang, around 8 guys. I'm king with 18pts and we hunt the 50's.
Know what we did?? -99z. Uncertainty of Covert19 had us wondering if I blew my load on an adult tag this year and we can't legally get enough guys to cover off our land whats the point?
Can only be in better shape next year.
You could also have just not claimed a tag in that event. At least you would have an idea of your chances in 22.....Quote:
Originally Posted by contaucreek
4pts applied to 18A Bull. See how it goes. ��