Deer numbers

Just curious on others experience and thoughts on deer numbers this year? My personal opinion is that the numbers are down this year and have been declining for sometime now, that includes sightings during scouting, hunting and trail cameras (WMU84) . I know that the mandatory surveys are to tell us this answer but if I hunted 30 times and seen the same 3 deer over and over again 90 deer in 30 hunts wouldn't be a bad season (depending if were talking fun hunts or buck hunts) however, that would produce a high deer count on my survey even though that may not be true? Any input or clarification would be appreciated.

My area 65 seems about the same as last year

I think the study is all relative. If you reported last year that you saw 20 deer, even though some may have been repeats and only saw 10 this year. It would potentially be an indicator of a dropping population, depending on what everyone else reports.

From what I shot and from what I saw on trail camera's the population in my area was good, better than past years.

Based on my trail cam photos, deer numbers are up in my hunting area of 76C. Doe numbers look about the same( does, fawns) but the buck numbers are up. Spikers, 2 1/2 year old's and two mature bucks.

Judging from what I saw during the 3 weeks I was up at our camp I'd say down, but judging from the amount of chases we had over the two weeks and the number of deer seen and shot by others in our camp I'd have to say up.

And during the muzzle loader, 4 guys hunting they saw deer everyday but because of the number that we got as a camp no one pulled the trigger... They made a call, trophy deer only. On three different days 8 pointers were passed on... so yes the population is healthy....

Let's just hope for an easy winter...

Our area has been noticeably increasing, especially with mature bucks.
We had property and surrounding properties selectively logged 6 to 10 years ago.
New growth does wonders for supporting big game.
This is deep woods in 57.

How old is your forest since last logged to allow for new/young vegetation growth?

I have 30-40 different spots across the WMU and haven’t been able to find many deer at. I did get lucky enough to harvest a mature buck so should not be complaining but I just feel like the numbers are way down in our area. Also discussed with other hunt camp members in the area and no one seemed to be very successful this year they all felt numbers are down. I am however very pleased to hear the problem is either not the case or at least not province wide.

Sorry I didn’t even answer your question One was logged 2 years ago that’s where I was able to harvest the buck so your absolutely correct with the logged areas it will Hopefully continue to improve for a few years yet

We didn’t do to bad 2 in the first week should have had more but some of the new guys got excited and missed a few and the wind was pretty bad most of the drives. We had 6 guys everyone saw multiple deer. We hunt in 57. Where I live 20 minutes north of the camp I would say numbers aren’t to great but that’s likely because there’s been a pack of wolves around this summer. Five minutes north of me a gang of twelve guys with thousands of acres got no deer, wolf numbers are insane in that area. We got one more doe the last day of bow.

In 87 I am seeing more bucks but fewer groups of does. Also, more hunters in the early part of the season and fewer hunters later on as the season progresses.

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Originally Posted by 6.5

Just curious on others experience and thoughts on deer numbers this year? My personal opinion is that the numbers are down this year and have been declining for sometime now, that includes sightings during scouting, hunting and trail cameras (WMU84) . I know that the mandatory surveys are to tell us this answer but if I hunted 30 times and seen the same 3 deer over and over again 90 deer in 30 hunts wouldn't be a bad season (depending if were talking fun hunts or buck hunts) however, that would produce a high deer count on my survey even though that may not be true? Any input or clarification would be appreciated.

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I also hunt 84 and have been saying the same for last few years. Taking into account rifle season only, I used to see between 15-25 deer for the week but the last 3 years I struggle to get to double digits for the number of deer seen. Another place I hunt in 85B holds some really nice bucks, usually watch 6-8 bucks through spring and summer but I think the number of does is down. As for filling out the report don't make it more difficult than it is. I saw the same buck come past me 4 times Monday morning, chasing does off the field. I warned him that he gets an opening day pass but that's it, don't pull that crap tomorrow. Needless to say he comes strutting out Tuesday morning at 7:30 with a raging boner so it was night night for him.

WMU 49 was about the same as last year. WMU 43B had more sign then previous years

Funny I hunted area 84 about 15 or so years ago. Our spot was spectacular, and we would tag out on the first day. Then the trespassing got real bad with large orange army gangs pushing through right by our stands with no regard for safety. We left and started to hunt 92B. Best decision I ever made... :)

Both WMU's I hunt seem pretty par for the course.
as a group we made better decisions on stand placement which seemed to pay off

my area is on par or up. Im still getting pictures of bucks and Does, and fawns. I'd say 4 Does to each buck.

Loring area and the surrounding areas the Loring Yard supported have still not recovered from the 2013, 2014 & 2016 winters.

93a lots of deer seen Through November (lots of does, few bucks)
Trespassers through my property during Dec controlled hunt, have not seen a deer since

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Originally Posted by ninepointer

Loring area and the surrounding areas the Loring Yard supported have still not recovered from the 2013, 2014 & 2016 winters.

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Now that area well, sad to see what it’s like now compared to what it was like back in the day. I know lots of old timers who consistently took big bucks there, while the MNR was helping the deer in the winter.

In over 35 years of hunting in Unit 10, this is the first year that we were skunked. To put things into perspective, this unit once boasted the highest success rate in Ontario at 54%. For several years, our group regularly tagged out on bucks. The pendulum has certainly swung the other way.

My trail cams have been showing only single family doe groups e.g. maternal doe, her fawns, and last year’s doe.

I started my deer hunting in the Loring area 50 years ago with my dad and uncle. Haven't hunted up there in about 15 years. Bush is probably getting to old and needs to be logged or burned.

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Originally Posted by sabmgb

I started my deer hunting in the Loring area 50 years ago with my dad and uncle. Haven't hunted up there in about 15 years. Bush is probably getting to old and needs to be logged or burned.

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I bet that you’ve had a few adventures!

I hunt 4 wmus in Ontario pretty consistently. I can say the deer numbers are down drastically in all 4 based on scouting, running 10-15 cams, and tons of time afield. It hasn’t happened overnight and the last 5yrs has seen steady declines. More archery hunters, loads of wolves, extended seasons, and a couple heavy winters have knocked numbers back big time. Mnrf needs to make some unpopular decisions shortly or the decline will be catastrophic.

I totally agree with your comments regarding the inaccuracy of the big game reports. I don’t see how the data generated could be of any value to be an indice for management decisions. The reported deer numbers are probably 10x what is actually present eg. Two does with twin fawns come every night to the food plots i hunt. I know there are are only 6 deer present but in 14 days of hunting i report 84 deer seen. Totally bogus. Same with coyotes reported. Zero seen in 14 days yet i know there are at least three separate family packs that have territory on my land and the bordering properties. At least 14 coyote's based on Six cameras for the past three months. I’ve removed nine coyotes by trapping since Nov. 8th on my 150 acres alone and i still haven’t got them all. We shoot bucks only as shooting does and fawns is like shooting yourself in the foot from my experience.

Numbers were down here in 90B for both Controlled hunts or at least by my own gang and others that I talked to. My gang in November only saw 5 , two were yearlings on Opening Day that buddy passed on and the other 3 were way out of shotgun range. My brothers gang push the bush in December and only got two Does.

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Originally Posted by Fenelon

I totally agree with your comments regarding the inaccuracy of the big game reports. I don’t see how the data generated could be of any value to be an indice for management decisions. The reported deer numbers are probably 10x what is actually present eg. Two does with twin fawns come every night to the food plots i hunt. I know there are are only 6 deer present but in 14 days of hunting i report 84 deer seen. Totally bogus. Same with coyotes reported. Zero seen in 14 days yet i know there are at least three separate family packs that have territory on my land and the bordering properties. At least 14 coyote's based on Six cameras for the past three months. I’ve removed nine coyotes by trapping since Nov. 8th on my 150 acres alone and i still haven’t got them all. We shoot bucks only as shooting does and fawns is like shooting yourself in the foot from my experience.

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this is a usual misconception with game reporting, but it's not bogus. All they are doing is watching trends. If you hunted the same number of days last year and reported more deer the trend is going down.

Its not rocket science, they aren't trying to get a population number, they are only looking at long term trends over years. Its proven trusted science that has been going on across north america for years. That combined with harvest data gives very accurate trends in the game herds.

Your just over thinking it and thinking the are trying to get data that they aren't. Its the cheapest most accurate way to get the data they need easily. Sure there are hundreds of other methods, but they aren't necessarily better and are typically much more expensive.

The data they do collect, along with traffic accident data and other factors gives them enough cheaply.

In order to make even a basic statement about a “trend” you still need “data”. The indice used for assessment of a trend needs to be standardized so that the same thing is being compared from year to year. The “number of deer seen while hunting” is being interpreted differently by different hunters eg. Some interpret the actual wording and will report the 84 deer (as used in my example), whereas many others will look at this number and say bollocks and only report the six animals. From my personal experience you get about 30% of the hunters doing the 84 report, about 50% reporting the count as six, then 20% falsifying their report by reporting much higher numbers (the idea being that high numbers will keep the doe tags and additional tags going). The old data saying of “garbage in means garbage out” comes to mind. There is such massive variance in how the info is being reported that i don’t see how even “ a line of best fit” can be
established to make any legitimate trend comment. I’ll have dig through the dust archives out in the barn. I’m sure i have some abstracts copied on background of the ODM (Ontario Deer Model) input variability, validity using mail in hunter surveys for big game management decisions, etc

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Originally Posted by Fenelon

In order to make even a basic statement about a “trend” you still need “data”. The indice used for assessment of a trend needs to be standardized so that the same thing is being compared from year to year. The “number of deer seen while hunting” is being interpreted differently by different hunters eg. Some interpret the actual wording and will report the 84 deer (as used in my example), whereas many others will look at this number and say bollocks and only report the six animals. From my personal experience you get about 30% of the hunters doing the 84 report, about 50% reporting the count as six, then 20% falsifying their report by reporting much higher numbers (the idea being that high numbers will keep the doe tags and additional tags going). The old data saying of “garbage in means garbage out” comes to mind. There is such massive variance in how the info is being reported that i don’t see how even “ a line of best fit” can be
established to make any legitimate trend comment. I’ll have dig through the dust archives out in the barn. I’m sure i have some abstracts copied on background of the ODM (Ontario Deer Model) input variability, validity using mail in hunter surveys for big game management decisions, etc

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I have spoken on this lots of time and keep coming back to the same conclusion, it should be a very simple change of the wording:

HOW MANY INDIVIDUALLY IDENTIFIABLE DEER DID YOU SEE.

So on my property I had a matriarchal doe and her last years fawn with her plus this years two new fawns. Every night they were out in the same field but I counted them only as four deer.

I did not see a nice 8 point buck at my licking stick 400 yards away from where the does come out but had him on camera.
I also had a none typical buck come out by a feeder the second day overnight also captured on camera.

Both these bucks had come from neighbouring properties one at least 2 miles away.(neighbour described it exactly)

So the most useful information I can give was that I was able to identify 6 deer period.

I had the four doe group on camera daily.

So everything could be verified, now I am sure that just on my property there was probably at least one real smart nocturnal big buck hanging around.

Although every hunter may count and report differently I would imagine that they would report the same way year after year hence a trend may be derived but not necessarily the number of deer

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Originally Posted by finsfurfeathers

Although every hunter may count and report differently I would imagine that they would report the same way year after year hence a trend may be derived but not necessarily the number of deer

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Ding ding ding!!!! we have a winner. And the trend goes back decades and keeps going.
Again its not accurate population numbers they are after, just the trend. This is one tool looked at, along with others that demonstrate the trend. Consistant reporting is what they need. If they change the questions now, the trends have to start again.

Just answer the questions as asked and that combined with harvest numbers which should be very consistant as there isn't any interpretation there, combined with the car insurance data on collisions with animals, aerial surveys, deer yard counts, etc, they do indeed get good trends.

You can hate on the MNR all you want, disagree with the questions, but there is still infact a basic tend gained from the data submitted.
No need to overthink it, its not rocket science, but is is repeatable and that is what they are after.

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Originally Posted by sabmgb

I started my deer hunting in the Loring area 50 years ago with my dad and uncle. Haven't hunted up there in about 15 years. Bush is probably getting to old and needs to be logged or burned.

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Yup, bush is getting old.

Way up!! 22 has been by far the best season in a long time. Deer are there. They aren’t just going to come out and die. Ones gotta know how to hunt. Patterns change, morning and afternoon spots, habitat improvement, travel routes etc. sure you’ll see some setting up on field edges but you gotta get in with them and where they live

In 92D the numbers are as strong as ever. Deer, in numbers, are seen all year long. Only thing different was buck sightings were down compared to other years, although I think it was because of the timing of the hunt.

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Originally Posted by marky.mark

W.... They aren’t just going to come out and die. Ones gotta know how to hunt. e

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Good on You and your group....sure big change in approach to "everything" compared to few years back............

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Originally Posted by ninepointer

Loring area and the surrounding areas the Loring Yard supported have still not recovered from the 2013, 2014 & 2016 winters.

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53a is about the same as the last few years but no where near where it was.

On a side note, wolf numbers are down,where we hunt, they were bad 3 years ago but we shot a bunch of them. Moose numbers are up, bear numbers are way up, grouse numbers are really high, and there seem to be some elk that have moved in.

Sam you are correct lots of good memories and some you just can't talk about. My 1st deer there I was 15, a monster 10pnt buck, dad took me to Port to the bar on the hill and had my first beer. Everyone in there wanted to buy me a beer, but couldn't drink that much

In 82a I hunt a large crown land forest. I have an odd deer on camera but the numbers seem way down compared to 8 years ago when I moved here. Opening day shots seem about half the number and there were a lot of guys out for both bow and ML so tags were unfilled. I used to see nobody for ML in public land when there were good deer numbers. Coyote sign is abundant and they seem to be right next to any deer tracks which suggests the coyote pressure is constant on the deer. I bet the days of 100% doe tags is over soon.