Deep dive into the moose draw

https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/moos...a-ec39594fbfd6

The link opens a table that shows the complete results of the moose draw e.g. point information, number of hunters who applied by choice, tags awarded in each step, etc.

What I found surprising, was the fact last year (for unit 15B) no tags were awarded for choice 2 or 3 in either the primary or second chance draw although there were over 100 bull tags and over 300 cow tags went unclaimed. I didn’t look at other units so don’t know if the situation is similar.

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Originally Posted by Sam Menard

https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/moos...a-ec39594fbfd6

The link opens a table that shows the complete results of the moose draw e.g. point information, number of hunters who applied by choice, tags awarded in each step, etc.

What I found surprising, was the fact last year (for unit 15B) no tags were awarded for choice 2 or 3 in either the primary or second chance draw although there were over 100 bull tags and over 300 cow tags went unclaimed. I didn’t look at other units so don’t know if the situation is similar.

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Seems there is the "not claiming tags" prevented MNRF from issuing tags..........at primary stage they stopped issuing tags at choice 1 - 4 points(not all with 4 points got tags either)because MNRF ran out of tags available( 544 was awarded)
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Then the secondary draw started with 236 !!! tags ( from 544 Primary draw awarded tags almost HALF of the tags were not claimed)!
They ran out of the 236 tags yet again at choice 1 - 3 points( not all 3point hunters got a tag either).

Having SOO many unclaimed tags AFTER the Secondary stage awards is a big issue. People put in the draw-get a tag awarded-then they refuse to claim it!
This is preventing the WILLING to get a tag.

MNRF should do something to improve this issue (we discussed that last year once already).

Unless-all is by DESIGN.

If I can math, it appears that 47,089 tags were awarded, but only 24,381 tags were claimed (all WMUs throughout Ontario) (downloaded the data, then summed up Column K and Column L). I do understand that there is Primary and Second Chance, and 1st - 3rd choice so maybe people who got their first choice turned it down and then applied for a Second chance tag, depending on who in their group/party was drawn for a tag.

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Originally Posted by gbk

Seems there is the "not claiming tags" prevented MNRF from issuing tags..........at primary stage they stopped issuing tags at choice 1 - 4 points(not all with 4 points got tags either)because MNRF ran out of tags available( 544 was awarded)
.
Then the secondary draw started with 236 !!! tags ( from 544 Primary draw awarded tags almost HALF of the tags were not claimed)!
They ran out of the 236 tags yet again at choice 1 - 3 points( not all 3point hunters got a tag either).

Having SOO many unclaimed tags AFTER the Secondary stage awards is a big issue. People put in the draw-get a tag awarded-then they refuse to claim it!
This is preventing the WILLING to get a tag.

MNRF should do something to improve this issue (we discussed that last year once already).

Unless-all is by DESIGN.

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In the moose webinar put on by OFAH and the MNRF the questions about the unclaimed tags was asked and the MNRF stated they were aware of the issue and looking into a solution for next year.
Hopefully they do make some changes but if anyone has some suggestions I would encourage you to send an email to the MNRF and hopefully they take the advice of Ontario hunters.

It wouldn’t be too hard to factor in a group application that is based on points. This would eliminate many of the unclaimed tags.

So if 20% of tag’s go unclaimed on average they adjust quotas up 20%. Unclaimed tags are a non issue


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Originally Posted by outdoorlife

So if 20% of tag’s go unclaimed on average they adjust quotas up 20%. Unclaimed tags are a non issue


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How do you know that the quota takes into account unclaimed tags?

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Originally Posted by Sam Menard

How do you know that the quota takes into account unclaimed tags?

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How do you know it doesn’t?

The design of the allocation systems is subbed out to an actuary firm. 100% guarantee it’s factored in.
What you’re suggesting would be akin to your mechanic not knowing how to change your oil.

did you know that every year the quota for each WMU is modified by the previous years tag fill rate in that WMU?

Link to the moose management review for those interested ;

https://www.ofah.org/wp-content/uplo...ressed-002.pdf

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Interesting for 55B - Gun/Bull. the top guys with 23 and 20 points declined to claim their tags? Likewise the top Bow/Bull with 19 points.

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Originally Posted by werner.reiche

Interesting for 55B - Gun/Bull. the top guys with 23 and 20 points declined to claim their tags? Likewise the top Bow/Bull with 19 points.

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See this in most WMU. Has to do with group draw strategy. If your group is trying to draw a particular tag it makes sense for everyone in the group to apply and to claim the tag with the lowest point total which is successful.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by outdoorlife

See this in most WMU. Has to do with group draw strategy. If your group is trying to draw a particular tag it makes sense for everyone in the group to apply and to claim the tag with the lowest point total which is successful.


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I'd expect to see a bit of it, but not this much. I didn't look into other WMUs though.

When I looked at Unit 15B there were a couple of high point applicants that didn’t claim their tags which was strange as you only needed 4 points for a gun bull tag. In our group, the tag goes to the guy with the most points which allows the low point guys time to build up.

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Originally Posted by Sam Menard

When I looked at Unit 15B there were a couple of high point applicants that didn’t claim their tags which was strange as you only needed 4 points for a gun bull tag. In our group, the tag goes to the guy with the most points which allows the low point guys time to build up.

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If you have a larger group and several members qualify for a same tag, it would be logical for the ones with less points to claim it thus you have a guaranteed hunting next season



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