Originally Posted by
MarkB
Based on an extensive google search I did yesterday trying to figure all this out, it seems the parties decide the number of delegates per state based on numerous criteria including population, and support for that party in a particular state. Whatever the number is, the delegates get split by proportion. If there's a split, then you can have a coin toss for a particular individual (say you get 50/50 split and have 7 delegates, 3 go one way, 3 go another and the 1 is decided in some places by coin toss).
In the end once you've tallied up all the caucus and primary votes, you basically know who's going to get elected. But here's the crux. Someone might drop out if they see they're not in contention. So who takes those votes? Also, campaigners can go to a non-popular state and spend little time, and move on quick to spend more time in the next state that votes where he/she knows he can gather much more support.
So many possibilities, no one can say Cruz or Trump will take it until key elections like Super Tuesday. That's when I think 12 states have primary elections (different to caucus votes), and a lot of info comes in. It's a complicated, evolving election process. And here you have some news agencies declaring Trump a total loss - they are literally talking about Cruz getting 1 or 2 more delegates, when the national convention will see thousands of delegates.