Understanding the moose validation tag draw

I thought I had a good understanding of the moose tag draw but now after the number of tags have been reduced for the unit I'm hunting, I got all confused. My question is: there is no guaranteed group size so the draw goes automatically to the second step: large group allocation. What happens if the Hunter:Tag ratio is bigger than 15 where 15 is the maximum number of the hunters in a group ? It goes automatically to next step random allocation ? In this case, an individual person that is not even part of group, or let's say it's part of a group of two can very well get a tag while a group of 15 can end up without tag ? Am I right ?

My understanding (IMO) is that the large group allocation is only used when there are excess tags after the guaranteed group size are satisfied. BUT there needs to be more excess tag numbers then the number of large groups for a particular number.. If there is, then all the entrants in that large group are satisfied. When there are more large groups then tags then ALL those remaining tags go into the individual draw. If an individual gets a tag then ALL the members in his group get yanked ....
Any units with a guaranteed group size issues all tags to individuals and yanks out their members if in a group. If a tag goes to some guys wife or brother in-law then there is a right of transfer. SO.. any individual would be wise to go into a group of two with his "ghost" hunter. This way you're in for 2 draws and you'll end up with the tag anyway. Any hunters in these WMUs without guaranteed group tags would be wise to "play" the game. If you're not doing it then you're not in the majority.
There's no way the MNR will deviate from this tag allotment process. It's too lucrative.
We don't write the rules! We just play the game.

So, in reading this, your saying that if you have multiple hunters you go into a large group, so a group of 2 has the same chance as a group of 7 of receiving a tag, so if we have 10 guys and there is no guarantee we are better to put in 5 groups of 2, the only downfall would be getting 5 tags ???

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Originally Posted by SK33T3R

My understanding (IMO) is that the large group allocation is only used when there are excess tags after the guaranteed group size are satisfied. BUT there needs to be more excess tag numbers then the number of large groups for a particular number.. If there is, then all the entrants in that large group are satisfied. When there are more large groups then tags then ALL those remaining tags go into the individual draw. If an individual gets a tag then ALL the members in his group get yanked ....
Any units with a guaranteed group size issues all tags to individuals and yanks out their members if in a group. If a tag goes to some guys wife or brother in-law then there is a right of transfer. SO.. any individual would be wise to go into a group of two with his "ghost" hunter. This way you're in for 2 draws and you'll end up with the tag anyway. Any hunters in these WMUs without guaranteed group tags would be wise to "play" the game. If you're not doing it then you're not in the majority.
There's no way the MNR will deviate from this tag allotment process. It's too lucrative.
We don't write the rules! We just play the game.

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Could you please explain what 2 draws are you talking about ( see bold letters in your post). Please keep in mind that in my initial post I said the ratio hunters / tags is higher than 15 so large group allocation doesn't apply ( at least this is what I think).

Thank you

It was explained to me last year that if your group did not meet the guaranteed group size, you went into the pool of individuals.
We have always applied in a group, even when we didn’t meet the group size. We always got at least one tag. The danger in everyone applying individually is if you end up with two or even three tags. I know of a group of 8 that applied individually and ended up with three tags. That pretty much cuts down on their chances for the next year.
With the tag cuts, getting tags is a crap shoot ! We used to be able to count on one tag, not so much now.....

It's always best to apply in a group because you have a chance at a group tag if you meet the right #. When the draw occurs, if every group of 15 qualify for a tag, they will all get one. Then each group of 14 is considered, then 13, etc. until there aren't enough tags to give all a particular group # a tag. After that, all group applicants are thrown in as individuals with those who applied individually, for what is left. So if you apply in a group you basically have 2 chances at a tag. And if you're in a group and someone gets picked, there is someone designated to transfer the tag to.

I have read the section dedicated to understanding the moose tag validation draw at least 4 times and I can tell you there are grey areas.
For instance, I'll take a random WMU, let's say WMU 5 which has a quota of 69 cows and a guaranteed group size of 9 for cow tag. Hypothetically it can happen to have 70-80 groups ( higher number than the quota) with 9 pool 1 hunters that apply for a cow tag. So what happens ? Is the quota suddenly increased ? At all fairness, it should be because all these groups applied for this WMU because they knew a guaranteed tag is issued if they had 9 hunters or more. Now some will say, what is the probability for this to happen ? I don't know but at least in theory it can happen.

For the same WMU5, the table at the page 51 "2017 Adult Moose Tag Draw Gun Quotas and Applications" it says that 474 applicants for G-Bull ( gun bull choice 1) applied for 38 tags. There is no guaranteed group size for this WMU. This means 474 hunters divided by the numbers of tags 38 = 12.47 . This means each group with 13+ pool 1 members should've received a tag. However in the table at the page 49 the table " Gun Guaranteed Group Size for 2018 " the column called "In 2017, all groups of this size and larger were issued tags", for bull the result is " none". In my mind there one explanation : there was no one single group that had 13 + pool 1 members, otherwise I can't explain this " none".
I think I killed you with these numbers but I'm sure some of you will understand my frustration.

@ Rick_iles : I'm quoting you " It was explained to me last year that if your group did not meet the guaranteed group size, you went into the pool of individuals." Whoever explained this to you didn't do a good job because in between the guaranteed group size and random draw ( your pool of individuals) there is another step called Large group allocation. You're perfectly right about the possibility of getting more than one tag when you break your larger group into smaller groups of let's say 2 hunters. This indeed could turn into a great disadvantage at the next year draw when you loose the proportional number of pool 1 hunters with the number of tags won current year.

Once the quotas are set , they are not increased or decreased.

The system is self explanatory re steps one through five of the draw.

The draws are done by computer and if you have the guaranteed group size required, you are more than likely to get a tag , but not necessarily, as I know of groups that have had the require number in the group but have not been lucky enough to get tags for the last 2 years. They applied in tough areas.

After the guaranteed group size draw is filled [depending on the number of tags available, it goes ti step two , the large group allocation, when that is done and if there are still tags left, the draw then goes into the random draw allocation , small groups and individual applications , till all tags are drawn.

Northern Residents have a separate draw , as a small percentage of the tags are held back for the draw for them , [residents only in wmu's 1 to 42]

Info for 2016 ;
Total Tags Available;10,757
Total Applicants entered in draw; 85,499
Total Successful Applicants; 9,692 , which left 65 surplus tags that were available first come first served.

Apply and take your chances like everyone else.

Jaycee
Info for 2016 ;
Total Tags Available;10,757
Total Successful Applicants; 9,692 , which left 65 surplus tags that were available first come first served.

Total Applicants entered in draw; 85,499 ...[COLOR=#FF0000]BUT a percentage of these don't actually hunt!

We all know what I'm talking about!

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Originally Posted by biflora

Could you please explain what 2 draws are you talking about ( see bold letters in your post). Please keep in mind that in my initial post I said the ratio hunters / tags is higher than 15 so large group allocation doesn't apply ( at least this is what I think).
SO.. any individual would be wise to go into a group of two with his "ghost" hunter. This way you're in for 2 draws and you'll end up with the tag anyway.
Thank you

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How can I explain this? Hmmm Rules are written for just about everything in life. You need to understand that the MNR at most times is a source of income for the gov't. Maybe the income doesn't cover the expenses but it is still a source of income. More tags sold equals more money. There have been tags bought by hunters wives and in-laws and co-workers for years. Using these tags inappropriately is an offence and rightly so. But along comes the moose draw and the MNR just allows it to happen with the tag transfers. Heck they even get an extra $10 for it now! The rules are printed right there for everyone to see.
So to answer your question.
It is to your advantage to get a non moose hunter to buy a tag. It takes 2 yrs of this before he/she is in pool1. When you both apply as a group of 2 you get 2 chances at the random draw. If you get the tag great. If he gets the tag then you'll be the transfer person. Winner! winner! Chicken dinner!
Is all this morally right! Not in my mind BUT you're dealing with a gov't that has no morals anyway. Follow the money. If the MNR cut out the transfer completely they would suffer monetarily and that IS ALL THAT MATTERS!
Sure it costs more to get a tag but the alternative is $500 plus a guide in Quebec, or more to Newfoundland. How about a deal from an Ontario outfitter with tags. NOT!

I've played a lot of sports over the years and knowing the rules intimately and playing those rules fairly is often what separates the winners from losers.

Re my previous post # 8,
I should have added ,that in wmu's that have outfitters, 10 percent of the allotted tags in each of those units are set aside for the outfitters which means fewer tags go into the draw system.
IE; wmu # xxxx total tags 120 , less 10 percent for the outfitters,which is 12 tags , so there are only 108 tags available in the draw system.

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It is to your advantage to get a non moose hunter to buy a tag. It takes 2 yrs of this before he/she is in pool1. When you both apply as a group of 2 you get 2 chances at the random draw. If you get the tag great. If he gets the tag then you'll be the transfer person. Winner! winner! Chicken dinner!

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If your partner gets the tag and he transfers to you, then you are the recipient of the tag and will be out of the draw for the next year, your partner is also out of the draw the next year as he was drawn for this year, so you are both out of luck for that following year.
This is the way it has been explained to us as we had to transfer a tag a couple of years ago.

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Originally Posted by jaycee

Once the quotas are set , they are not increased or decreased.

The system is self explanatory re steps one through five of the draw.

The draws are done by computer and [COLOR=#ff0000]if you have the guaranteed group size required, you are more than likely to get a tag , but not necessarily, as I know of groups that have had the require number in the group but have not been lucky enough to get tags for the last 2 years. They applied in tough areas.

After the guaranteed group size draw is filled [depending on the number of tags available, it goes ti step two , the large group allocation, when that is done and if there are still tags left, the draw then goes into the random draw allocation , small groups and individual applications , till all tags are drawn.

Northern Residents have a separate draw , as a small percentage of the tags are held back for the draw for them , [residents only in wmu's 1 to 42]

Info for 2016 ;
Total Tags Available;10,757
Total Applicants entered in draw; 85,499
Total Successful Applicants; 9,692 , which left 65 surplus tags that were available first come first served.

Apply and take your chances like everyone else.

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I don't want to be a pest but what you're saying here is in direct contradiction with the meaning of the word " GUARANTEED ". It is not maybe, it is not possible, it is GUARANTEED.

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Originally Posted by jaycee

If your partner gets the tag and he transfers to you, then you are the recipient of the tag and will be out of the draw for the next year, your partner is also out of the draw the next year as he was drawn for this year, so you are both out of luck for that following year.
This is the way it has been explained to us as we had to transfer a tag a couple of years ago.

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That’s not the case ..... the transferee is in pool 2 the following year. The transferor remains in pool 1 the following year.......unless that has been recently changed. If the transferor gets drawn again the following year, he/she cannot transfer again.
http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repos...006/302255.pdf

Last paragraph explains....

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Originally Posted by rick_iles

That’s not the case ..... the transferee is in pool 2 the following year. The transferor remains in pool 1 the following year.......unless that has been recently changed. If the transferor gets drawn again the following year, he/she cannot transfer again.
http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repos...006/302255.pdf

Last paragraph explains....

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Correct. Page 41 2018 regulations

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Originally Posted by jaycee

Re my previous post # 8,
I should have added ,that in wmu's that have outfitters, 10 percent of the allotted tags in each of those units are set aside for the outfitters which means fewer tags go into the draw system.
IE; wmu # xxxx total tags 120 , less 10 percent for the outfitters,which is 12 tags , so there are only 108 tags available in the draw system.

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Do you have a reference in the regulations about this 10% tags allocated for outfitters ? I've seen the 5% reserved for Northern residents but I can't find anything about 10% to outfitters.

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Originally Posted by rick_iles

That’s not the case ..... the transferee is in pool 2 the following year. The transferor remains in pool 1 the following year.......unless that has been recently changed. If the transferor gets drawn again the following year, he/she cannot transfer again.
http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repos...006/302255.pdf

Last paragraph explains....

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I know what it says in the regs, but that is what happened to us for two years, coincidence ?? maybe .
For two years following our transfer, we did not draw a tag.

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Originally Posted by biflora

Do you have a reference in the regulations about this 10% tags allocated for outfitters ? I've seen the 5% reserved for Northern residents but I can't find anything about 10% to outfitters.

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That info came direct from the biologist that we had a meeting with, it is done in conjunction with and by the On. Outfitters Assoc. headquartered in Sioux Lookout, whom we also spoke with by phone from the biologists office.

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Originally Posted by biflora

I don't want to be a pest but what you're saying here is in direct contradiction with the meaning of the word " GUARANTEED ". It is not maybe, it is not possible, it is GUARANTEED.

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Why prolong this discussion here ? take up your argument directly with the MNRF, at Head Office, they are the ones that make up and set the rules and regulations.

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Originally Posted by jaycee

I know what it says in the regs, but that is what happened to us for two years, coincidence ?? maybe .
For two years following our transfer, we did not draw a tag.

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Coincidence likely. We always apply over the phone. It gives you your pool numbers so you can keep track.

Rick FYI
you also get pool #'s and group#'s when applying on-line.
see GREF below (stands for Group Reference)

MOOSE DRAW ENTRY
Start Date: 2017-05-01
End Date: 2017-12-31
Hunt Choice 1: HUNT CODE: 690, WMU 88, Bull, Snares Only
Hunt Choice 2: HUNT CODE: 690, WMU 88, Bull, Spotlight Only
GROUP MEMBER: 01 POOL STATUS: 2 GREF: 6817210

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Originally Posted by jaycee

The draws are done by computer and if you have the guaranteed group size required, you are more than likely to get a tag , but not necessarily, as I know of groups that have had the require number in the group but have not been lucky enough to get tags for the last 2 years. They applied in tough areas.

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I've have never been part of a group, or known a group, that was not given a tag if they met the guaranteed group size by having enough POOL 1 applicants. But, I have talked to groups that thought they met the guaranteed size, but after some investigation discovered that they were short of the guaranteed size because some members mistakenly thought they were pool 1, when in fact they were pool 2, making them ineligible to count towards the group size.

I have never ever heard of a guaranteed group not getting a tag. If groups have randomly been denied a tag after meeting the guaranteed criteria, I'm sure the OFAH would be interested, as it should warrant investigation, as well as an explanation from the MNRF.

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Originally Posted by jaycee

Why prolong this discussion here ? take up your argument directly with the MNRF, at Head Office, they are the ones that make up and set the rules and regulations.

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Just for the sake of making an informed decision. Don't feel obligated to respond if you don't like it. My point is all the arguments I posted here can be backed up with an official document. It's not word of mouth, it's not my friends or my group previous experience, it's the document that everybody should read before going out to hunt. The only reason for posting is that I didn't have a good understanding of the above mention document ( re. the topic of this thread) and wanted to see how others see it. I will eventually make my way to Aurora MNR office but I'm not sure if I can find the right persons there. Speaking with the lady at the counter where they sell licences probably doesn't help.

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Originally Posted by delmer

I've have never been part of a group, or known a group, that was not given a tag if they met the guaranteed group size by having enough POOL 1 applicants. But, I have talked to groups that thought they met the guaranteed size, but after some investigation discovered that they were short of the guaranteed size because some members mistakenly thought they were pool 1, when in fact they were pool 2, making them ineligible to count towards the group size.

I have never ever heard of a guaranteed group not getting a tag. If groups have randomly been denied a tag after meeting the guaranteed criteria, I'm sure the OFAH would be interested, as it should warrant investigation, as well as an explanation from the MNRF.

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What you're saying makes a lot of sense.

I think the moment the MNR published the words "GUARANTEED" that there is a legal, binding obligation to all groups that meet the requirement. They can not (legally) say guaranteed, take your money, and not fulfill the contract.
The MNR is just rolling the dice like they always do.
If they ever screwed our group like that we'd pool all our $ and hire a lawyer and bend them over!

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Originally Posted by rick_iles

Coincidence likely. We always apply over the phone. It gives you your pool numbers so you can keep track.

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We have always done ours through the license issuer, starting with the group leader who is given a group reference number and we all give the reference number to the issuer when we apply wherever we go to get our licenses.

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Originally Posted by delmer

I've have never been part of a group, or known a group, that was not given a tag if they met the guaranteed group size by having enough POOL 1 applicants. But, I have talked to groups that thought they met the guaranteed size, but after some investigation discovered that they were short of the guaranteed size because some members mistakenly thought they were pool 1, when in fact they were pool 2, making them ineligible to count towards the group size.

I have never ever heard of a guaranteed group not getting a tag. If groups have randomly been denied a tag after meeting the guaranteed criteria, I'm sure the OFAH would be interested, as it should warrant investigation, as well as an explanation from the MNRF.

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This guaranteed group size doesn't mean much if the number of groups that apply to a certain wmu exceeds the number of tags available, it is impossible then to uphold that guarantee if there are not enough tags available.
This is evidenced by the Group Statistics and the individual Statistics proved in the regs. summary.
IE; last year , Total # of groups 7,868
Total # of tags issued to groups 4,322
Percentage of groups receiving tags 55 percent, meaning that 45 percent of those groups applying, did not receive tags.
As was the case with my neighbor, even though they had 3 more than the required group size in pool # 1

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Originally Posted by jaycee

This guaranteed group size doesn't mean much if the number of groups that apply to a certain wmu exceeds the number of tags available, it is impossible then to uphold that guarantee if there are not enough tags available.
This is evidenced by the Group Statistics and the individual Statistics proved in the regs. summary.
IE; last year , Total # of groups 7,868
Total # of tags issued to groups 4,322
Percentage of groups receiving tags 55 percent, meaning that 45 percent of those groups applying, did not receive tags.
As was the case with my neighbor, even though they had 3 more than the required group size in pool # 1

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Yep, I’ve been at this moose thing for a long time, 38 yrs and counting. There have been a lot of changes over the years. Our group has been together all that time, with a few new members, sons etc.. We have had tags every year with the exception of one. We’ve also never left a tag not filled.
I’ve heard lots of stories about groups that didn’t get tags for years on end. I usually attribute that to guys not applying, not applying properly, or just missing the deadline. However, there have been a few stories that make a guy go..Hmmmm!

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Originally Posted by rick_iles

Yep, I’ve been at this moose thing for a long time, 38 yrs and counting. There have been a lot of changes over the years. Our group has been together all that time, with a few new members, sons etc.. We have had tags every year with the exception of one. We’ve also never left a tag not filled.
I’ve heard lots of stories about groups that didn’t get tags for years on end. I usually attribute that to guys not applying, not applying properly, or just missing the deadline. However, there have been a few stories that make a guy go..Hmmmm!

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No wonder we got no moose left.

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Originally Posted by rick_iles

Yep, I’ve been at this moose thing for a long time, 38 yrs and counting. There have been a lot of changes over the years. Our group has been together all that time, with a few new members, sons etc.. We have had tags every year with the exception of one. We’ve also never left a tag not filled.
I’ve heard lots of stories about groups that didn’t get tags for years on end. I usually attribute that to guys not applying, not applying properly, or just missing the deadline. However, there have been a few stories that make a guy go..Hmmmm!

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This incident happened a number of years ago, anyone that received a tag that year , was under 35 years of age.
This was even written up in the ood mag. at the time , a lot of shid raised , after it was all done and discovered, MNR did admit to "a mistake being made ".

My years of moose hunting, 58 and counting, a lot of moose have fallen to my rifles and provided a lot of great eating .
Back when I started, you just bought your "moose licence " and shot either or, cow or bull , mainly shot bulls as they were usually larger.

[QUOTE=jaycee;1058237]
My years of moose hunting, 58 and counting, a lot of moose have fallen to my rifles and provided a lot of great eating .
QUOTE]

You are old! Did you ever meet Moses? :thumbup:

[QUOTE=SK33T3R;1058242]

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Originally Posted by jaycee

My years of moose hunting, 58 and counting, a lot of moose have fallen to my rifles and provided a lot of great eating .
QUOTE]

You are old! Did you ever meet Moses? :thumbup:

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Yes , I did actually meet Moses, Moses Wharton at a basketball game, he was a little younger than I but much taller , nice guy!

Started hunting moose when I was 18 years old [love hunting big game].

[QUOTE=SK33T3R;1058242]

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Originally Posted by jaycee

My years of moose hunting, 58 and counting, a lot of moose have fallen to my rifles and provided a lot of great eating .
QUOTE]

You are old! Did you ever meet Moses? :thumbup:

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That,s why we call him a grumpy old man.

[QUOTE=SK33T3R;1058242]

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Originally Posted by jaycee

My years of moose hunting, 58 and counting, a lot of moose have fallen to my rifles and provided a lot of great eating .
QUOTE]

You are old! Did you ever meet Moses? :thumbup:

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Met another guy named Moses, he works at the local Zehrs!

[QUOTE=Gilroy;1058335]

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Originally Posted by SK33T3R

That,s why we call him a grumpy old man.

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Hey Gilroy! I was told by others on this forum that they were talking about you any time a "grumpy old man is mentioned" :)

[QUOTE=jaycee;1058400]

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Originally Posted by Gilroy

I was told by others on this forum that they were talking about you any time a "grumpy old man is mentioned" :)

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FYI

I'm usually positive in most regards but mention the Misfits Of Natural Resources and I kinda get grumpy and go into spin cycle. The way things are going with their management techniques and by the time I'm your age there won't be nothing left to hunt but starlings. Maybe not even them if they cross with a cormorant or coyote along the way. Then some other activist group will start a save the starling campaign because "starlings have feelings and are teople poo!"

[QUOTE=SK33T3R;1058403]

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Originally Posted by jaycee

FYI

I'm usually positive in most regards but mention the Misfits Of Natural Resources and I kinda get grumpy and go into spin cycle. The way things are going with their management techniques and by the time I'm your age there won't be nothing left to hunt but starlings. Maybe not even them if they cross with a cormorant or coyote along the way. Then some other activist group will start a save the starling champagne because "starlings have feelings and are teople poo!"

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Same here, and as an old friend of mine [now passed away ] said many times , " we have seen the best of times in our lives when it comes to hunting , as it is all going down hill fast ".

The draw only gives preference to groups that meet/exceed the guaranteed group size as well as the next largest group size. It doesn't give consideration to any other group size . For example if the guaranteed group size in WMU X is 15, all groups with 15 or more pool 1 hunters WILL get a tag before any other group size. If any tags remain after that step, some groups of 14 may get a tag (depends on how many groups of 14 pool 1 hunters apply as well as the number of tags that are still available) . Once these 2 group sizes has been awarded tags, the computer randomly awards any remaining tags to individuals regardless of their group size or if they applied as an individual. In this example, groups of 13 don't get preference over smaller groups or hunters who applied as individuals. At any step of the draw where a hunter who applied in a group is awarded a tag, his buddies are removed too, so groups can only get 1 tag.

As long as your group meets/exceeds the guaranteed group size with pool 1 hunters you will get 1 tag. In situations where this hasn't happened, it is either because not all group members were pool 1 eligible, didn't apply on time, application wasn't received, or a system error occurred . In cases where it can be shown that a system error was made (MNR error), then groups who complain will normally get a tag.

The MNR is conservative with determining guaranteed group sizes and sets the group size higher in case a unit gets hit with an unexpected number of groups that meet the guaranteed size.

[QUOTE=jaycee;1058399]

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Originally Posted by SK33T3R

Met another guy named Moses, he works at the local Zehrs!

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Did he part the Red Sea........lol

[QUOTE=huntnmachine;1060816]

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Originally Posted by jaycee

Did he part the Red Sea........lol

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That wasn't his dept. :)

What's done is done now... Time to wait for Aug 1!!