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Thread: Real-estate market 'almost at a crisis situation'

  1. #1
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    Default Real-estate market 'almost at a crisis situation'

    It would appear that the madness that affects the Toronto real estate market has started to spread to outlying areas.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2017/02/16...isis-situation
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy." Ernest Benn

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    It's gone beyond nuts, and the funny thing a lot of people don't think, if I sell mine they'll have to buy another, usually higher price. when that bubble bursts, it will be time to buy at a extreme reduced rate. Up the interest rate a couple points and a lot won't make their payments. Another point, why do people imagine they all need 2000+ sq/ft homes when they can be happy in something smaller. Bigger house, more heating and electricity bills, never ends.

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    Maybe I should sell and sit on the money for a few years and wait for the crash. LOL
    The wilderness is not a stadium where I satisfy my ambition to achieve, it is the cathedral where I worship.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fisherman View Post
    It's gone beyond nuts, and the funny thing a lot of people don't think, if I sell mine they'll have to buy another, usually higher price. when that bubble bursts, it will be time to buy at a extreme reduced rate. Up the interest rate a couple points and a lot won't make their payments. Another point, why do people imagine they all need 2000+ sq/ft homes when they can be happy in something smaller. Bigger house, more heating and electricity bills, never ends.
    I loved the little 900 square foot bungalow that I owned 25 years ago. I would still be there if it were up to me.
    The wilderness is not a stadium where I satisfy my ambition to achieve, it is the cathedral where I worship.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Species8472 View Post
    Maybe I should sell and sit on the money for a few years and wait for the crash. LOL
    Don't laugh,it makes perfect sense if one is in that position. We bought 10 years ago for around $270K. Last week,two streets over,the exact same design house with a smaller lot went for $679K ($95K over asking). They're selling them to Toronto people desparate to get out the city. With foolishness going on in that city,I can't blame them. The downside is God help them if there's a real estate/economy crash because most people are mortgaged to the eyeballs.
    Society needs to stop bending to the will of the delusional.

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    The insanity has just continued, no different than when I said goodbye to the insanity of life in the GTA this time last year.

    Looked at a number of places, as far east as Newcastle/Bethany. No different back then. I really knew just how insane things, people were when we found one place outside Port Perry we liked. It was reasonable and we were hoping in a tiny little pocket in the middle of nowhere it might not go insane.

    It did. Forget the numbers
    These young couples are also going in firm. given the bidding wars if their bank has only pre approved X, they are on the hook for anything else over and above...
    No inspection ( could be bad, especially rural properties) Imagine finding some old Oil tank in the ground 6 momhts later or the foundation.....
    No Septic ( could be very expensive)
    No Well ( holy crap)

    When and how will it all end?
    who knows.

    Even if rates stay low for a long time (and they could given things)
    Think about how much Interest your losing over 10 years on mortgages of 500,000 -800,000

    yeah we have certainly made a fine mess of things.

    The place we did find. Not sure what I did right in life to have it drop in my lap. Tucked away in a tiny little pocket even I didnt know existed (helped a ton) and somehow miracoulsy no other bidders. It hit the market Friday, my offer was in only hours later...They still insisted on waiting the time they are allowed, and i get it, who wouldnt....But the gods smiled on me that day.
    Last edited by JBen; February 17th, 2017 at 08:02 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Species8472 View Post
    I loved the little 900 square foot bungalow that I owned 25 years ago. I would still be there if it were up to me.
    Mines a 1000 up and down, 62 x 140 lot, bought it in '83 for $49K, I'm not moving. And that way brand new.

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    Bought our place for 76K many moons back and it has just been appraised at over 600k...we are looking to downsize and move out Durham way but what's available out there it ridiculous....one we looked at last weekend went
    100K over asking! Thank god we are mortgage free and will not be going into a mortgage situation...as we are
    particular and can take our time we may just end up waiting out this boom! But who knows as we have a couple
    places to go look at today!

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    BM
    Its all "relative".

    Theres a couple things occurring in Durham, that's not occurring elsewhere thats affecting the pricing but for the most part the insanity is everywhere inside the GTA, and then "likely" within a 100km radius around it.

    10-15 years ago Durham region was the sleepy undervalued region few from the city to moved out to. When small "towns" like Brooklin were still quaint small towns with lots of charm. And hamlets were still hamlets.

    The first wave (round y2k) was really lots of people from Scarboro, who couldn't afford much but could afford to put zero down before they finally changed those rules. So they did.

    Then area's to the west of the city hit the "saturation" point. and most couldn't afford them. So they either had to look further west to Milton/Gueplh/Hamilton, or North towards Bradford/Barrie.

    Then they started widening the 401 around the rouge and bringing the 407 from Markham to Pickering. The great bottleneck ( or Trump wall if we prefer started bursting), easing.

    The quiet, little, affordable Durham region was no more.

    It just blows my mind that people ( especially young couples starting out) are spending 400,000+ on war time bungalows that need work. 500,000+ on townhouses.

    The bidding wars are a result of many things. The Real Estate industry is in part to blame, they sort of opened Pandora's box years ago. Was a time you couldn't "hold" offers, creating the log jam that today has

    5,10,20 people all Qued up to make an offer.

    Will a crash happen?
    Depends. People need to live somewhere. Supply and demand, the GTA is unlike any other market out there. ITs the only centre in Canada really. In the US theres Chicago, New York, a handful......In the Last report I read on it. Demand>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Supply. They still figure they are short housing for 60,000 (I'm guessing thats worse now) in Whitby/Oshawa alone.

    Depends on numerous things like economics, jobs, cost of living, and more.

    A crash may sound like fun as a couple have posted but even if you, yourself and I ( no not you specifically) are unaffected by the paper drop in home prices.....Your job? your kids? Its basically a economic nuke going off. Look at the States. Hundreds of thousands of people, losing their homes and once the snowball starts..........

    Whose going to be buying your widgets?
    Queens Park? With so much debt? Whose going to paying the land taxes to "Pickering", Oshawa, whose going to be paying for teachers, nurses, blah blah blah

    Holy crap those bankrupt people are toast
    Holy crap thats 20,000, 30,000, 40,000 homes MPACs assessed at 800,000 now worth "400,000?", "200,000"?
    Jesus H, says the town of "Pickering", our budget for this year is 20,000,000 in revenue...How the F are we going to pay the cops, and everyone else....
    /pink slips

    and the snow ball grows
    *****

    Will a correction occur?
    Probably but how large, who knows.
    Last edited by JBen; February 18th, 2017 at 08:10 AM.

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    If you need an Agent you can trust for Durham I know a few good ones. My own personal agent has been close to tears a number of times, when people she's trying to help find a place keep losing and losing and losing.....due to the insanity. Having 10-15 competing couples bidding against "you" is nothing. There are places where its 60 people trying to buy it.

    There was a report that the average buyer will get into 13 bidding wars, before finally becoming so desperate, they throw everything they can at something just to
    A) Get something
    B) Remove the stress of looking

    She had to help one young couple trying to move here from Montreal. meant every weekend Dad was on a plane to come join the mad house (The GTA) and pray that by the time he flew back home the 1 house he could put an offer on of the 10 they might have looked at didn't go ballistic when they opened the bidding war on the Monday. And if he didn't get the 1 and only 1 house he could try to bid on, options 2, 3 were gone as well come Tuesday. So it meant starting the whole process over again....

    Wash/rinse/Repeat. Until you get to the point you throw everything "your worth" at it, to get it.
    Last edited by JBen; February 18th, 2017 at 07:27 AM.

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