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Thread: Real-estate market 'almost at a crisis situation'

  1. #51
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    Very nice HJ.
    I'd take a home over a McMansion aka palace aka house, each day, every day, nine ways to Sunday. I don't "get it" why some feel they need or want anything but a "home"

    Can't put a price on some things and no price would tempt me.

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  3. #52
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    A report today. the speculation. Many experts have been predicting a crash since the 90s, many believe it will never correct. As the report says ( and I mentioned in the political thread) Toronto is a world class city
    The 5th largest in NA.
    Demand will likely never slow down or drastically fall off. And by the time theres enough units to meet demand, we are years and years away from that. The caveat is the great "who knows what tomorrow will bring"

    If anyone could really predict that they'd already own their own private Island somewhere. Not sure even Warren Buffit would go so far as to say he knows...

    30% year over year increase.
    50% of buyers are first timers

    ignore the average detached price in TO (1.5mm). The average price of houses in the gta including Semis, links, towns is likely around 600,000

    That means those kids want and need $120,000 for a down payment. Then are house poor, but how many years would it take to get that 120K saved. Now consider that house that 600,000 house is up 30% this past year. Aka it went up $90,000 in 1 year....They are done before they even start...

    Eventually it will settle somewhere, somehow. Crash....I don't know, don't see it personally but a correction of 5-8%, yeah. The builders stopped building palaces on lots barely big enough to hold them some years ago. Why people want to live in fishbowls I don't know.

    /wonders how many units would be available today, had for 30 years people not built those McMansions

  4. #53
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    Thanks J Ben. Sweet place you found to call home as well.

  5. #54
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    Thanks Species

    Can't take any credit for the gardens or the wife would kill me and the lawn really isn't lawn, ya , it's green and it grows but it's mostly crab grass , dandelions, ect,ect. Never sprayed or fertilized plus my boy Jack has been cutting and trimming since he was 9. That's how he buys rifles and scopes/ ammo.

  6. #55

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    ..... i just got sick reading this post. depression is getting into me as i keep looking at those house prices. to me its unrealistic, I can't seem to find a stable job, I barely make 48k.
    my fiance and I we don't break 100k income annually on paper. we both said we don't want to be house poor, as she wants her hobbies as I do mine.

    i'll be 35 this year and the idea of house/property ownership is just fading on monthly term now if the prices keep rising.

  7. #56
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    I feel for ya Poltrojan ,as I said previously if my wife and I were starting out today I am not sure what options we would have for home ownership anywhere near the gta. House went up for sale yesterday one street over from us at $600,000 and it's being advertised as a tear down saying " attention builders ".

  8. #57
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    This is what has happened across the street from my house. 1 house was torn down at $525,000 rebuilt and sold for 1.5 mil. The house under construction was a 550,000 tear down.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  9. #58
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    Poltrojan, I read your earlier post, didn't reply to it as I honestly don't know how to reply to it. Don't know what to say.

    Most young couples I know and this includes a nephew who is a Dr and very brilliant and his young wife is likewise a PHd and working in any area. They are renting, and will probably never buy.

    Totally hopeless no.
    For starters as much as I loathe this admin they do do the odd kernel of good and occasionally do the right thing. One such, was a couple years ago they brought in some legislation thats forcing municipalities to renew old run down parts of town, or build up, before building out. Some years ago most builders finally started seeing the writing on the wall to. And rather than building 3,000sq boxes on 45foot lots that left people with no yard and no privacy, they started building a lot more Towns, semi's, links, and singles on smaller lots. Eventually supply should "meet" demand and when that happens, there will be less demand for the traditional "starter" homes, so there shouldn't be these insane bidding wars.

    Legislation from the Feds and hopefully TREB and the RE industry wake up and realize they to must shoulder some of the blame and change a few rules. Will help to.

    Between then and now a lot can happen, or nothing can happen. Trump could set off a Nuke, or A to Z but I wouldn't bet a on a meltdown crash. Looking at the US around 2006-2007 and then 8, even at its worst the big 3 escaped the worst of it. Lots of jobs, a fairly diverse economy and more. Toronto is the 5th largest in NA, but the only in Canada. Sincerely doubt the Feds, let alone banks will allow a meltdown. If its big enough any of the big 5 banks could tumble and theres only 5. And if it happens it will be ugly, very ugly because it will wipe out people, the few banks we have, many companies, many jobs, many towns who needs all that for their own tax revenue to pay their own programs and services.

    Bang, might as well be a Nuke.

    Re the rest.
    Again I "know"
    One of the things I have argued, defended, whatever for years here and unfortunately just way too many people caught up in their own lives don't.

    Find a good FA.
    It's not "that" bad, but.......

  10. #59
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    And a house, no matter how big and fancy it is, is never a home. If you ask me cavernous rooms, some rooms likely never used. Cold quasi half shell houses are all they are.

    In time it should settle Poltrojan and other things hopefully to get straightened out a bit.

  11. #60
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    Thought I would add this. One thing (not the only) pundits don't talk about when talking RE and big corrections ( how large a percentage drop is a correction and when does it become a crash) is they don't talk about credit. They don't talk about how the world seriously relies and works on credit, nor the flow of it.

    The states became a domino (as did much of the world) we felt it here, will just say it really kneecapped our company though we got through it. If people start losing their homes that hits our big 5, and the more it builds, the bigger the hit and won't just be 1. Each financial institution out there is in each other pockets big time. At it's simple Bank A gets into trouble, all the other institutions that lend or borrow from them are in trouble to. And it ripples out, credit tightens "we" stop lending, to companies that borrow for their operations, to each other and so on. Credit is our life blood, and a big enough "crash", well it would be like the Saudis turning off the supply of oil..But worse.

    Sell/Rent for 5 years. Well in theory sounds good but the rental market isn't much better and with starter homes going up 50k, 100k year............

    "who knows"
    Doubt anyone does but Ill tell you, don't think or hope for a crash,, if it does happen and it can, find a deep dark cave and hope for the best

    Edit: Clarification.
    The bad loans didn't touch "us", the credit crunch did. People/companies we were borrowing from started looking hard at us and in effect saying.."ok, if they get caught by a domino and default to us, how bad will that hurt"....So our capacity to borrow was gutted, which in turn meant A) We couldn't do as much business our taps dried up, less out the other side and B) we were looking at those we doing business with and covering our As. and so on and so on Companies like Ford/GM were affected less out there for them to, to expand plants, to lease fleets, to lease cars and so on and so on.
    Last edited by JBen; March 4th, 2017 at 03:47 PM.

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