Real-estate market 'almost at a crisis situation'

[last5oh_302]

Thanks JBen. My agent just called. There are 11 registered offers in now. Crazy!!

Make that 13 offers. 2 hours to go. Nuts.

[JBen]

For what it's worth R, that I think is normal to the East, or it's certainly not uncommon to get 15 bids on a house. One place we looked at last year, over 20bids and we were targeting places that would avoid it. Lots of places getting more than 40 bids.

When I first got divorced, 9 short years ago there was none of this...List house mid week, open houses on the weekend, hold offers until Monday bs. Im sure initially agents loved it, it helps them sell it by creating the "jam" ( and t's good for their bank accounts) sellers loved it to, but all they really accomplished was choke off liquidity, an essential, critical component to any market.

Hopefully TREB and others ( Feds set many of the rules) get their heads out of the sand and do what they can around the process/rules.......sooner, rather than later.

[JoePa]

Here's what you do if you own a home that has greatly increased in price - remember opportunities like this may only come once in a life time - sell your place and move to an area where housing prices are still low - if you are self employed or can work from home or retired you got it made - if you have to commute then buy small motor home or truck camper and stay there during the week - you leave your home early Monday morning and go to work - stay in the camper 4 nights and come home again on Friday night - your away from home 4 nights - you would be surprised how many guys work away from home and commute only on the weekends - when the market crashes it won't bother you because you made your bundle - with cell phones you can keep in touch with home while your away - In my life time I bought and sold a couple homes - each time buying in locations where prices were low and selling when the prices increased - doing that a couple times enabled me to buy my present home with cash

[JBen]

Joe, I think "normal" expectations can be thrown out the window. How hard was NY and CHI hit in 2008 relative to other places. Not saying they didn't feel it, but compared to say "Small Town USA".

its important to look at dynamics or underlying fundamentals. Toronto/GTA is the only "megapolis" in Canada. In the US theres 5. If we use Vancouver or Calg as proxies. Once foreign investment petered off in Vancouver not long ago, there was an immediate cool-off, because largely thats all Vancouver has going for it....

The GTA gets about 30% of all immigration. Its a magnet, lots of jobs (relative), world class city etc. Now consider the economy here, where small town Ontario has been kicked in the gonads, and ignored while the GTA has received all kinds of incentive for companies to create jobs, and billions in infrastructure (be it 407 expansion, Go transit expansion, etc). So lots of Ontarians looking for work there, and people trying to get out....Not many jobs....

Very many, very knowledgable people have predicted corrections (noticeable) for 25 years....still waiting.

People who sold say 2 short years ago and rented with that idea are now likely SoL. The house they sold in 2014 is now likely worth hundreds of thousands more. This year prices are up about 30%. So if you sold a modest say for 600,000, it would cost 900,000 today. In just one year. Even small "starter homes" and Towns are going up by 100k and more. One area that would be considered the burbs ( Brooklin) Towns are going for 600k

So it would take a greater a "correction" of 35% just to break even (including commissions) let alone other taxes, fees, expenses.

Not saying thats a bad idea, but it's a big, very big roll of the dice.
And if house prices here do "correct" 30%
deep dark cave. We got huge problems that go beyond just RE.

[skypilot]

I remember back when you could move to or temporarily "go to where the work was." I don't hear of as many "boom town" nowadays.

I do hear rumors that Hydro One will buy Toronto Power.

[Hunter John]

Make that 13 offers. 2 hours to go. Nuts.

Good luck Rick.

[JBen]

Don't recall the exact time frame, want to say from 2008 to around 2011, net immigration ( People coming to Ontario vs People emigrating) was down. Don't recall the percentages either but the growth trend was down. For arguments sake, say 2.5% growth/year to 1.5%growth.
One of the conclusions was people leaving Ontario looking for work ( Calgary anyone???)

Know a few people that moved out west, including one electrician who would fly to Fort Mac for 3 week stints on one of the projects, come home for a few days, fly back out. Imagine if he had sold his house for say $300,000 back in 2010 and was now caught in the oil bust and trying to find work back here. Luckily for him his wife and kids at home........so never sold. Safe bet he'd have to buy far less (smaller) and pay more.

When the province (aka Ms Wynne trots out "jobs" numbers). One thing no politician will mention is that theres a certain amount of pure natural growth. if the Population is growing by 100,00/year ( Ontario is around that), even with zero help from the province. Jobs will be added. So when she says "we've replaced 30,000 jobs" since XXX...Well ok
How much has been PS (does virtually nothing for the economy but is needed given pop growth)
How much has been for purely organic reasons (natural growth).

Am thinking since Alberta went in the tank, a lot of people have come back home looking for work

[Species8472]

905 area is now 1,000,000+ for average detached and T.O. is at 1.6M average.

http://business.financialpost.com/pe...to-the-suburbs

[skypilot]

Don't recall the exact time frame, want to say from 2008 to around 2011, net immigration ( People coming to Ontario vs People emigrating) was down. Don't recall the percentages either but the growth trend was down. For arguments sake, say 2.5% growth/year to 1.5%growth.
One of the conclusions was people leaving Ontario looking for work ( Calgary anyone???)

Know a few people that moved out west, including one electrician who would fly to Fort Mac for 3 week stints on one of the projects, come home for a few days, fly back out. Imagine if he had sold his house for say $300,000 back in 2010 and was now caught in the oil bust and trying to find work back here. Luckily for him his wife and kids at home........so never sold. Safe bet he'd have to buy far less (smaller) and pay more.

When the province (aka Ms Wynne trots out "jobs" numbers). One thing no politician will mention is that theres a certain amount of pure natural growth. if the Population is growing by 100,00/year ( Ontario is around that), even with zero help from the province. Jobs will be added. So when she says "we've replaced 30,000 jobs" since XXX...Well ok
How much has been PS (does virtually nothing for the economy but is needed given pop growth)
How much has been for purely organic reasons (natural growth).

Am thinking since Alberta went in the tank, a lot of people have come back home looking for work

AND many of the "jobs" she claims credit for are part time, but wait there's more(like the commercial) NOW THEY are trying to spin that dud by headlines that now read Do we really need fulltime jobs" Who wants to get up at 4 am anymore. yada yada...

I swear the liberals can spin an orphan's funeral.

[last5oh_302]

Good luck Rick.

Thanks John but I lost it. It went for 102 over list. Back to drawing board.