Real-estate market 'almost at a crisis situation'

[trimmer21]

Until there's another complete economic meltdown,I don't see an end in sight. Banks,realtors and government just keep steamrolling along like there's not a thing to worry about. I'm really surprised the Feds didn't hit us with huge capital gains provisions in the budget to cool things down a bit. Liberals never saw a tax they didn't like,so,I thought they'd be all over that like a hound on a hot dog. Something is going to give,maybe not as soon as I think,but,when it goes bang,don't be standing in front of it because it's going to be fugly.

[JBen]

Problem is Trimmer, if that occurs, it will be ugly.
When you look around the province, everywhere outside the GTA, things aren't so good. Has economic growth in the province been good the last couple years? Yeah, not bad and I'm sure Ms Wynne will (and has bragged) about it. But its kind of like that Dr and the stats not telling the whole story. Its one thing to crow to about 2% or 3% growth, but then not look any deeper. Aka how much of that is the GTA......And how much of that is in areas getting crushed, that have been for years....The last I read, also showed that wages across the board are down a bip. So even though, for the first time in years, more full time jobs (where????) have been added than part time wages are going down. And there are already hundreds of thousands in "Energy Poverty" and more heading there. Gee what nice clinical, politically correct way to label what things have done to people. Well to people everywhere but......

Right now with respect to housing the only thing saving the GTA likely is population growth. But thats also the problem...The expansion East? Well its being done for reasons...
There are reasons everyone is heading to "the land of plenty". What happens when that fizzles, like it has been in ALTA..............You know sadly its not unlike what occurred to Oshawa years ago, except on a much larger scale. Oshawa had all their eggs in one basket. 20-30 years ago Oshawa was booming...... a nice place to live and work.....Today
Average household income of 46,000, the highest mill rates in the province and more.

And Ontario has all its eggs in one ugly, greedy, self centred beast of a basket.

Im nowhere near smart enough to see or find answers, decent ones that cost an utter fortune (looks at 300b+ debt), but Im not dumb or blind either, like Hawkman, I have a hard time not looking at the broader and deeper picture. We've screwed our kids royally(well some of us have) along with those in power. Old cliches stick around for reasons. In this case

Follow the money


There are just no good ways out.Hydro and so many other things. If housing crashes or another kick in the guts economic downturn. Might as well set off a nuke right in the core of TO, a big one.

Who picks up the pieces?
No idea, but Im thinking the people who will be in a position to buy houses will mainly be those people Hawkman is mentioning. Everyone is else is just going to be hoping they "survive", keep their jobs and can hold on.

[werner.reiche]

I'm not sure what is driving the TO market. Around Ottawa it's pretty stable - maybe off a bit.

In this area, one thing that the year-to-year comparisons that show ever increasing prices don't
show is that the houses being sold are getting bigger and better finished over time.

I'm moving back into town (Kanata) after 27 years in a small village east of Ottawa.
(taking 120km off my daily commute and cutting the 2 hours to the cottage/woodlot
to 1hr15m). 13 year old 1800 sq ft 2 storey on 40x100 lot like new inside 370k.

There are some stunning awesome deals on houses in the Eganville area.

[JBen]

Part of me, the part of me that isn't anywhere smart enough wonders, if what we need is prolonged deflation. Wages going down, which in turn brings the prices of things down. And something that triggers an exodus from the GTA, slow or stop the population growth. Reverse the trend of the last 10-15 or 20 years. Build up other areas, be they Kingston, Kitchener Waterloo ( See Ms Wynne trying to entice tech companies there) and more...

It came up in another thread Werner albeit it subtly.
Lots of tax breaks over the past X years to "modernize" houses. Great, who or where exactly can people "afford" to pour 20-50k into houses.

1800sq on a 40x100 with lots of bling. In Durham region, maybe as far East now as Newcastle that would likely be listed for 600,000 or 700,000

[JBen]

This is what $500,000 can buy a young couple in Newcastle. Just a mere $500,000, not sure where two kids starting out will find the $100,000 for the minimum 20% down, but who cares....Apparently not many of their parents....

Thats assuming it sells for just $30,000 over ask. Better hurry. With the 407 linking to 115 just up the road, and with Go Train service due in 2-3 years....The commute into the city will be around 2 hours, so not so bad. But if you don't jump now, in 5 years time if things (all things) keep going the way they are...............
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...o-L0B1M0-Orono

[werner.reiche]

This is what $500,000 can buy a young couple in Newcastle. Just a mere $500,000, not sure where two kids starting out will find the $100,000 for the minimum 20% down, but who cares....Apparently not many of their parents....

Thats assuming it sells for just $30,000 over ask. Better hurry. With the 407 linking to 115 just up the road, and with Go Train service due in 2-3 years....The commute into the city will be around 2 hours, so not so bad. But if you don't jump now, in 5 years time if things (all things) keep going the way they are...............
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...o-L0B1M0-Orono

There's one in Eganville like that for 125k.

[BIG MAC]

J Ben, there is house similar to that ( not as nice outside ), think address is 1086 Fourth Street Mississauga, listed for $775,000. with 2 open houses on the weekend, but on a lot smaller lot , we are getting our realtor to find out what it sells for, my guess is the hight $800,000. SCARY , SCARY , SCARY.

[JBen]

Makes you shake your head in just pure WTF how insane crazy greedy and more ( aka political masters, glass towers, ivory towers and a couple more) are people and the GTA is and in almost utter dismay and sadness.

We can point fingers at this and that. A lot of it for things over the past 10 years say, but in truth a lot of it probably goes back 20-30.

There are reasons why when my world blew up last spring I said "screw it, Im out of the insanity, short sightedness and more". Have spoken with many good friends that are still in Durham region ( about 6-8 like us have said this is Fn nuts, Im outta here) because as Hawkman rightfully said/pointed out and its not just housing prices...........

I know 2 very good people, both want badly likewise to leave the insanity. They feel trapped, tied to the GTA where the work and $ is, but more importantly they have kids, kids that if they aren't getting started now, will be in a couple years. One guy has been pricing places north of Lindsay, up around Balsam. But every time he finds a place he thinks he can call home, the chains hold him back.And he is beyond "worried" about his kids.
His wish and hope is that his kids can find work somewhere very far away, and then he will follow them.....
But he knows........the odds of that.slim.....Many of my former colleagues jumped right back into it. Some found work during the summer, late fall. Some have already been laid off again.

Werner if my girls weren't in Durham, if they still didn't need their dad somewhat close by Id be up around there somewhere. Its one of our target areas for maybe 5 years down the road. Nuts eh???
125,000 vs $500,000
just freeking nuts.
*****

Not sure what I did right in life to first
meet an incredibly smart woman with more degrees (pedigrees) than I can shake a stick at, but who long before me saw the trappings, the bs, the power struggles....And said "F it, Im outta here". If it were up to her, we would be in some 2nd world country where the ocean breeze blows through some small hovel with year round open windows already. So she was more than onside when I said F it, Im out of the insanity myself......

Then to find and get this place the way we did.
The last month or so Ive been trying to keep my pulse on my new hood. On one hand it would seem prices are going nuts and I've been thinking about hitting a nearby open house soon. Just to gauge the "demand". See how many lemmings in the rat race are pounding the door.

There hasn't been anything listed "in my hood" since last summer.
Im thinking thats a good thing, for the most part we are in a tiny little pocket thats off the radar.
for now.

But when I look on mls just outside this tiny wee pocket no-one has heard of before.....

We are just outside a tiny little hamlet called Valentia, a little South and West of Lindsay. So a good 90 minutes to Markham or Scarborough. 2 hours or more into the city. There are some here that do that commute.....
now

This is basically right across the water from me.
$700,000
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...1K0-Janetville

Closer to Port Perry all kinds hitting the million dollar mark. And thats Port Perry!

[Hawkman]

That "exodus from the GTA" has been happening for quite some time JBen.
In fact for as long as I can remember people have been living in places from Orangeville to Peterborough and commuting to Toronto/Brampton/Mississauga for their daily work.

The current real estate prices have only helped people to shift their brain gears again, accepting the "need to commute". That desire to own a home has flared in many heads, pushing them to places like Port Perry and beyond. Maybe it's a good way to help populate the land? I don't know.
As JBen said, where are the jobs in those far away places?
What if the price of fuel skyrockets again and commuting becomes un-affordable?

My thoughts again go to all levels of GOVERNMENT.
They fail and fail again.
People pay the price for their incompetence and their selfish greed.

The mayor of Toronto makes me so mad every time he opens his mouth and a balloon's worth of hot air comes out of his empty head. The guy can't shut up about transit. Streetcars are a JOKE and the City of Toronto doesn't care AT ALL about all the businesses that go bankrupt when streetcar rails need to be repaired or replaced on a street. I've seen many tragedies as a direct result of streetcars being in existence and I hate them with a vengeance.
Yet, it's all smoke & mirrors, telling people how the City will fight Bombardier in court for not delivering the new version of these antiques(!) on time. All in the name of "assisting people" with their "transit needs" of course. Bait and switch, on a daily basis, while quietly collecting billions in Land Transfer Taxes from all the ridiculous real estate sales!!!

In any other country, there would be at least a talk of starting a revolution.
The foreign buyers are messing things up as we speak.....

[JBen]

haha, we really nd to have a brown pop or other sometime Hawkman.
Don't disagree at all. Re Tory, also moaning about tolls on the DVP. On one hand I see his point but on the other its not like everyone hasn't already done a ton to put his city on the map. Get lots of lots jobs in region, etc.

Re population
Don't know, can't be sure, but I would feel comfortable suggesting tthe growth in the city say over the past 8 years (since 2008) is far outstripping anything before. I know for example the town of Brooklin (just North of Whitby and 20 min from Port Perry). They are expecting it to double in size in the next 4-5 years, from it's current 30k, to 60k. My GF grew up there when it was all farms. Just a short 30 years ago and th pop was 1,500.

Believe currently the GTA is growing by 100,000 per year.That means every year an additional 50,000 new units need to be supplied (assuming just two people)....

The cycle of people growing up, moving out is beyond broken.
Seniors and the issues they are having...Sounds good to move to the country and retire away from it all.
They needs services, social lives, ability to walk to this/that, survive winter without going bat ship crazy etc.
great article on that a week/two ago, and the problems are already starting in suburbia ( not enough for them, too far to this or that) etc.