Covid 2nd Wave....fact or fiction

[MikePal]

I posted this statistical chart produced by Ontario Public Health few days back deep into another thread that has since been removed. So I will resurrect the topic, because I think more people should be made aware of what is being feed to us by the politicians and media is largely just fear mongering.

The facts about the 2nd wave:

This chart ( from Public Health) shows there has been a huge increase in the amount of Covid tested being done and of course a correlating increase in the number of Covid cases reported . Statically however, the Purple line on the graph shows, on a percentage basis, there has been no significant increase in the number of people testing positive ( I think I read it's about 1.4%). There is virtually no increase in the percentage of the population with Covid in Ontario today as there was back around mid June...



This chart shows that there have also been no significant increase in the number of deaths from Covid over the same period June-Sept..




So where is this 2nd wave ? What is it based on ?

Last night, the Grim Reapers on CTV evening news expounded that there are now 3 people with Covid in the Ottawa ICU's.....2 weeks back there was only 1, a 3 fold increase !! Is that what is considered a 2nd wave ?

The population of Ottawa is about 1.4 million...and 3 people are in the ICU. Hardly overwhelming the City of Ottawa Hospitals which have 410 ICU beds.

I'm not a conspiracy 'tin foil hat' type guy, but I'm having a hard time not agreeing with the folks who are calling it a Hoax...at least the response to it by our government. The flu is real and people are getting sick and dying....but to consider shutting down the economy again under the false premise that there is a 2nd wave is not warranted, at least not based on the statistically facts from Public Health.

source: https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-1...0-09-29-v2.pdf

[rf2]

Mike, you'll like this:
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-do...owns-1.5126193

[MarkB]

[/URL]

It's interesting, no doubt. I think what would be helpful is to cut everything prior to July 5th from that first chart.
The fact is, they weren't testing enough, and so the % are skewed WAY too high. I can take from that chart that unless you aren't testing 25,000 or more a day ... you aren't getting a good statistic. With the pre-July data in there, it just shrinks the % line in the months July to Sep, where it appears to be flat, but it isn't. In fact, if you look close in second half Sep, the number of tests jumped from an average of 24,000 per day, to an average of 36,000 per day ... so 50% increase. The % positive also jumped from around 0.5% to around 1.5% (hard to read because the data is squished so much). That is an issue ... really we went from 24,000 test per day x 0.5% positive = 120 per day positive, to 36,000 test per day x 1.5% positive = 540 per day ... that's more than a 4x increase.

In terms of deaths, we really won't see the impact on data for at least a 30 to 45 day period. People who get sick from COVID and die, don't die in 1 day ... it takes weeks and weeks and weeks ... so there's naturally a lag. The anticipation is we will start seeing the needle moving on deaths in the back-end of October.

The need to be locked down is frustrating, no doubt. It is also nerve wracking, because I still can't figure how we aren't going to end up in a huge economic downturn from this ... and more lockdowns will add to the pain. On the other end of the scale, we cannot end up with a pandemic so large that the hospitals are not coping and we have massive amounts of deaths ... we need to keep it under control, to the extent where we can cope.

So that's the balance ... we all know it. Some think that COVID is no more than a seasonal flu, and others treat it like it's Ebola. The reality is probably it's much worse than the seasonal flue, but far less of an issue than Ebola. We have to find a balance in reacting to this. I do not see the current situation of shut downs as sustainable ... but, on the other hand, I don't have any good solutions to offer, other than the obvious ... quarantine the elderly, rest of society adapts to situation, keeping the economy going, and practicing good hygiene including wearing masks.

[trimmer21]

I'm leaning toward 30% factual to 70% media "spin" and hysterics. Why they do that is up for discussion,but,I know I posted this somewhere else that all media has a vested interest in sensationalism to bolster circulation. Print newspapers are on the brink of financial collapse,their media broadcasting parent companies aren't far behind. Financial oblivion is a powerful motivator to indulge partisan politics when parties cough up hundreds of millions of $'s in "support".

[fishfood]

Montreal is shutting down bars , movie theaters, restaurants I think , banquet Halls and a number of other things.

In Ontario the only second wave is in Toronto lol.

They say it will be alot worse mid October seeing over thousand cases a day. wouldn't be surprised to see more of Toronto shut down soon.
One case is to many for our government but remember they only want to slow it not stop it.

Many people think it will be over soon, like it will be better next year [emoji23]. We only need a vaccine and all will be good right ? Wrong what's going to make it any better next year ?or the year after? It's mutations are making it easier to catch but if I heard right less deadly . A vaccine isn't a cure-all and could take several years to even be effective. If it is something that sticks around forever what is the government going to do then ? Just forget it happed and stop all the funding or is this the new way of life ?


Bunker down for a long and bumpy ride lol.

Somehow I think the US could be in better shape before we are . With heard immunity and a good vaccine not many will be able to spread the virus. Here we took the slow and long Rd it will ruin alot more in the long run.
Maybe trump will buy out Canada in a few years take the oil and flood the streets with more guns lol. Canada will be so broken if we keep going on this track who knows what will happen but it won't be good. Maybe even become a 3rd world country lose all our jobs with a corrupt government lol. [emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]

Ps we are supposed to have a twindemic
Because you know the regular flu season is approaching.







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[waterrat]

I ask this question to anyone I speak about this with. " How many of you know of, in your circle on acquaintances, have either got sick or died" I have only one reply that they knew a guy with an Uncle how had it, but got better quick. If it is as bad as the media claims, there should be bodies all over the streets...

[rick_iles]

Just as an aside to this, I read a report indicating we have a 1.45 Trillion dollar debt now....if we were to pay back one million dollars a day, not including interest, that debt would take in excess of 3.9 thousand years...hard to wrap ones head around those kind of numbers. I haven’t checked the math myself...maybe someone better at math can verify those numbers.

[MikePal]

Lets not forget to keep the numbers in perspective....the numbers that they are posting daily represent a miniscule proportion of the overall population.

The Population of Ontario is about 15 million....

The total of known positive cases (as of today) is 51,710...or .34% , yes .34 % of the population...less than .5% of the population have tested positive to the virus.

Today's frighteningly high number ( according to the news) is 600+/- new cases which represents about .004 % of the population.

And they are now talking of shutting down the economy , again, and spending $Billions more on emergency aid to those who are losing their jobs and businesses because of a perceived 2nd wave that statistically doesn't exist and is affecting less than .5% of the population.

Canadians did our part and flattened the initial curve 6 months ago and the threat hasn't returned, according to Health Ont numbers. So why does the fear mongering continue...what is the end goal of this government ??

[MikePal]

I ask this question to anyone I speak about this with. " How many of you know of, in your circle on acquaintances, have either got sick or died" I have only one reply that they knew a guy with an Uncle how had it, but got better quick. If it is as bad as the media claims, there should be bodies all over the streets...

This also explains why very few people know of anyone and why there are no bodies in the streets...they're scarce as Hen's teeth...

[gbk]

COVID testing true story: one of my coworker has 4 friends. They had to do COVID test for whatever reason. They lined up and signed up for the test. The test station close down for whatever reason BEFORE they got tested.
So they all went home.
Few days later they all 4 got the letter-You have tested POSITIVE for COVID!!!