CMHC: Home prices could fall 47.9%

[JBen]

Couple more minutes.
"Household debt of 176". That's $1.76 owed on every dollar of disposable income. Which is a persons income after cough.......taxes.

Statistics Canada added that annual trends show that lower income households tended to have a higher debt to disposable income ratio.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/sta...debt-1.5609510

At what point, given stagnant wages and taxation, are the peons "forced" to use credit more.
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Mark, the option to sell high and buy low by moving out of the city. Might not be much of an option anymore. I'm not sure if it still holds true now, but back in the summer/fall, real estate prices were seeing the most growth, outside the city.

I know for a fact, two bungalows on my street have sold for over 1 million in the since summer. With one of them going 300,000 over list. A couples mtg payments/land taxes will be lower, but most all other expenses will be higher. Living outside the city isn't cheaper, the lifestyle is. I also know, people were lined up outside a sales center for the past couple weekends for a new subdivision. That hasn't even started yet...........Then it's just a matter of jobs/incomes taxes etc.

Which brings us to this.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b6df63a91656a9

and jobs

[fishfood]

If prices drop 47%., the banks will be owning a helluva lot of homes

Maybe not the banks but the top 1 percent

Just watched a video from the UK they are buying up all the cheap pubs that have gone under.

The top will own everything soon enough.

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[fishermccann]

What do they say? Something like property is never a bad investment. Buy a couple of properties during the fire sale and set your ‘inheritors’ , up for the future. Done every day in the stock market. Buy low, sell high. Capitalism at its finest.

[Species8472]

What do they say? Something like property is never a bad investment. Buy a couple of properties during the fire sale and set your ‘inheritors’ , up for the future. Done every day in the stock market. Buy low, sell high. Capitalism at its finest.

As it should be. Watch and wait. When time is right snap stuff up and pay cash. Other than my first house this is how I acquired all the property I currently own and the same way I will make future acquisitions. Best deals are during nasty recession and throw in an ugly divorce and things only get better.

[dean.f]

As it should be. Watch and wait. When time is right snap stuff up and pay cash. Other than my first house this is how I acquired all the property I currently own and the same way I will make future acquisitions. Best deals are during nasty recession and throw in an ugly divorce and things only get better.

I hope to one day be in the position to do the same. It's a consistently successful method for regular folks to accumulate wealth.

[Species8472]

I hope to one day be in the position to do the same. It's a consistently successful method for regular folks to accumulate wealth.

Should add that when interest rates are low it doesn't always make sense to pay cash if you can do better in the market. In those cases I just make sure I always have enough cash/liquidity to pay off mortgage in the event rates go up.

[fratri]

This thread reminded me of this ............ The Big Short

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

[JBen]

Some considerable differences between the US and us. But "yep".
And I can't help but wonder, if people have forgotten or perhaps, given we barely felt it in 2008, unlike the US and Greece. That some think we will somehow be special �� Should a bonafide crash occur here.

Tidbits
The US dwarfs us, they have built in shock resilience. The difference between a house with 10 employed people and 1....given we are so much smaller, it would be worse. Another fact some seem to have forgotten the big cities in the US largely escaped it......it's the inverse here.

Household debt in the US was 170%. We are pushing 180%.

Mortgage debt alone is somewhere around 1.6 trillion. If property values crash, that's potentially 800B or more wiped out.

How much cash do people think Banks actually have.................have fun getting it.

MPAC.
Have to assume property tax revenue...look around today. Do we think Munis are flush......so lay off most of our cops and firefighters?

It would largely crush younger people. People,, those who plan get rich off it, will need supporting the tax pyramid in their doddering old ages...careful what wish you for

Etc and Et al
Anywho, given demand isn't likely to dry up......

[410001661]

What do they say? Something like property is never a bad investment. Buy a couple of properties during the fire sale and set your ‘inheritors’ , up for the future. Done every day in the stock market. Buy low, sell high. Capitalism at its finest.

Exactly.......
Us the tax loop holes to avoid the capital gains tax and now you are cooking with gas!

[contaucreek]

This is what blows my mind, I have coworkers who drive 2 hours 1 direction in perfect weather and traffic. Imagine the vehicle costs and the toll on health and family. Come winter time or cottage season traffic they spend half their life during the week driving. I opted to suffer up front and pay more on the mortgage to live driving junkers and have no internet or cable for a few years and I'm sure glad I did because commuting 3-4 hours daily and replacing my vehicle every couple years would get old quick.

I do the 2hr one way every weekday. Home by 5pm. Vehicles love long trips, keep oil changed every 10,000 or so. Im on my 3rd commuter car, over 600k on the first 2. No toll on my health, gas cost is not unmanageable and surprisingly traffic (non existant) and weather have little bearing on my commute time. I have been doing it for almost 20 years, that's a lot of Coast to Coast A.M. lol..