Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 23

Thread: Inflation Rate Increasing..go figure. :)

  1. #11
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    Litterally just got/opened my renewal letter/form.

    Below is a smattering of options.

    5y fixed. 2.49%
    3y fixed. 1.99%
    7t fixed 2.95%
    1y fixed 2.24%
    6m convertible 2.69%

    5y variable. 1.5%

    So based on those rates.
    1) what do the banks want
    2) what would most consumer do given the times
    ?

    Banks/govts are little different. And with respect to prime rates. Everyday we could be positive cash flow and lending hundreds of millions overnight. We could be short cash flow and borrowing

    and wouldn’t it be nice if we could do 10 or 25 year
    Last edited by JBen; June 18th, 2021 at 04:21 PM.

  2. # ADS
    Advertisement
    ADVERTISEMENT
     

  3. #12
    Has too much time on their hands

    User Info Menu

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBen View Post
    Have to take stuff with salt Mosquito. Whether it’s from the Cons or Liberals .

    Debt servicing cost currently going down, likely because they are rolling long term debt as it matures, into short term debt. So fairly significant rate savings as aged debt matures. In time, depending on factors and variables we can only guess at, they will likely start locking in longer term debt. Basically, at its simplest, no different than consumer mortgages. During low rate environments, short term. During rising environment environments lock in more long term. Who knows what the world might look like in 5-10 years or 25. But right now, stuff is maturing that was issued, months ago, 1 years ago, 5-10 years ago. At much higher rates relative to today.

    T-Bills are discount notes. Bonds pay interest. Discount notes, you buy at a discount to par. And when it matures the holder gets the face value.

    Thus a $100 T-Bill might be issued at $96 ( depending on rates, credit rating, time value). Then 1 or 3 years later its worth $100. So they get $96 when it’s issued, owe $100 when it matures.

    One other thing to consider with devalued money (printing $$). Just as the rich and well off can buy RE as a hedge against inflation. So can they.

    $1 today is worth 0.50 “tomorrow”

    So that means, the debt obligations are devalued too.

    $1 in interest paid 5 years from now, is paid with .50 cents per se. From a quarter to a penny.

    But that’s also where interest rates ( takes more $ to pay off $1) and yield curves ( future value) come in.
    ....a the foundations are still good, the "interest" on the T-bills and the interest on the bonds hasn't started to kick in yet...






    https://www.fraserinstitute.org/stud...-for-canadians
    Summary


    • In recent years, deficit spending and growing government debt have become a trend for many Canadian governments. Like households, governments are required to pay interest on their debt.
    • In aggregate, the provinces and federal government are expected to spend $49.6 billion on interest payments in 2020/21.
    • Residents in Newfoundland & Labrador face by far the highest combined federal-provincial interest payments per person ($2,604). Quebec, Canada’s second most populous province, is the next highest at $1,417 per person.
    • The federal government alone will spend $20.2 billion on debt servicing charges in 2020/21, which is roughly equivalent to what the government expects to spend on Equalization ($20.6 billion) and collect in Employment Insurance Premiums ($21.5 billion).
    • Ontarians are projected to spend $20.3 billion on combined federal and provincial interest costs in 2020/21, which is more than the province will spend on infrastructure this year.
    • Meanwhile, total expenditures on interest costs for Albertans ($4.8 billion) is close to the expected spending on advanced education in the province. Combined federal-provincial interest costs for British Columbians ($5.5 billion) are more than what the province expects to spend on its Medical Services Plan this year.









    and just wait until they have to start paying the interest on the $1,300,000,000,000 debt.... burning up opportunities, burning up the future essentially and spreading to all parts of the economy and society!

    <br>
    Last edited by mosquito; June 18th, 2021 at 06:02 PM.

  4. #13
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    I/we get that. I don’t know that many here disagree there is a cost to being in debt. Many, both hard ( actual $ cost) and soft ( non monetary).

    But the topic was/is inflation.

    Which. If I’m ti be honest, like most or many financial devil details, whether that’s the difference between interest and yield, or how to calculate the PV and FV of money, or far more advanced stuff. What derivatives are, how and why they are used, etc and so on like beta and delta hedging. And on and on.

    It’s not very well understood, How many people even know the causes of inflation ? Without googling it…
    .
    I am an expert? No, but I have spent my life in an advanced field that few people understand, just what they see in Hollywood movies like the big short, or wolf of Wall Street. Or in the press when there’s a big blow up like 2008, and the financial crises and ABCP…

    Even to this day, when I try to tell anyone what I did for 20 years, eyes go glassy.

    And what I can do, is provide more information, shed more light on stuff, few people ever hear about or know. On this or that, or how financing ( whether by people, companies, governments, works)

    Inflation

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/why-...ur-wallet.html
    Last edited by JBen; June 19th, 2021 at 03:49 AM.

  5. #14
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    I have recommended a certain book a handful of times. If you want just a surface look at somewhat related thing because we on the topic of government debt, T-Bills ( Treasury Bonds), some things the public is not aware of, how the “world or financing actually works” etc, and so on.

    Read: “when genius failed”.
    Just another near miss, that few ever heard or know about. And while I wasn’t with Long Term Capital back in the 90s, I was in the field and it happened, is “true”. As far as that goes

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management


    If not interested in reading the book (it’s actually a good read), skim the link and read “trading strategies”, and because the topic is inflation, “interest” rates, Govt debt, who determines Prime ( the BoC or FED) what that is ( the overnight rate major fininancial institutions use to lend and borrow stupid amounts of money between themselves) every day….

    take note of some things mentioned and also Google (I don’t mean offense by that, I Google all kinds of things myself), CDOR and LIBOR.

    Heres a teaser.
    "In fixed income the company was involved in US Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds, UK Gilts, Italian BTPs, and Latin American debt, although their activities were not confined to these markets"

    Am I hinting at some things? Yes. But that ( what exactly) is up to “you” to determine. To each their own.
    Last edited by JBen; June 19th, 2021 at 05:28 AM.

  6. #15
    Has too much time on their hands

    User Info Menu

    Default

    I am talking inflation ... and with all the printing of money and creation of huge government debt Justlied Trudope et al are started down a path that has in the past often led to hyperinflation in the Wiemar gov't, Argentina, Zimbabwe etc. were savings/investments were worthless and you could sell you house one week and use the whole amount to buy just a meal not long after. Inflation affect peoples spending and attitudes, employment, quality of life and if not competently controlled (and we know the Libs aren't competent in anything) the country is fubar.

    At some point even if they manage to avoid creating an inflation disaster the debt payments will be the largest component of the budget and infrastructure, pensions etc. can become unable even be maintained also affecting those we already see ignored by this government (vets, disabled, seniors, reserves...) and again fubar.

  7. #16
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    Mosquito,

    The previous post, the one which I was “responding to. Said nothing about inflation. Didn’t even refer to it, including the stuff copied from the Fraser institute. It’s all about debt levels and cost. Aka, current positions, not future projections.. And while we all understand that as rates rise, all else equal so to will the debt servicing cost. But all else is not equal, and while we know it won’t happen, it is possible the Cons could hammer us with taxes, take $ out of the system, pay down debt. So in ten years…But even then, there’s more. A lot more….

    Saw and read this morning. Decent read. Make of it ( interpret) how you (not you specifically). But it also touches on, what many here argue is the answer. Create jobs..isn’t that what everyone yells? Well great, that’s another cause of inflation. Be careful what you wish for…

    Anywho
    buried within are 3 words, that are easy to miss/overlook not really understand.
    .

    Saw and read this morning. Decent read. Make of it ( interpret) how you (not you specifically

    Swap market data

    https://www.reuters.com/article/cana...BNdA5jq4s3VQmQ
    Last edited by JBen; June 21st, 2021 at 06:40 AM.

  8. #17
    Needs a new keyboard

    User Info Menu

    Default

    And what will happen if this hyperinflation that’s really being caused by governments Canada and US giving out free freshly printed money to people a lot ran out buying toys Wants not needs. And we go the other way with deflation.

  9. #18
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    Inflation up and suggestions that interest rates will rise up past previous highs since Canadians are holding onto alot of money lol.

    https://financialpost.com/news/econo...nments-splurge

    Sent from my CLT-L04 using Tapatalk
    Last edited by fishfood; June 21st, 2021 at 11:46 AM.

  10. #19
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    Same article I linked from Rueters at 5am Fishfood
    3 words...

    As for inflation, there are 5 main causes. They can work in concert, or not. I'm not sure if theres been a period where we are ticking 4 of 5 in concert. About the only we aren't (yet) ticking is solid growth in GDP

    https://www.economicshelp.org/macroe...ses-inflation/

  11. #20
    Member for Life

    User Info Menu

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBen View Post
    Same article I linked from Rueters at 5am Fishfood
    3 words...

    As for inflation, there are 5 main causes. They can work in concert, or not. I'm not sure if theres been a period where we are ticking 4 of 5 in concert. About the only we aren't (yet) ticking is solid growth in GDP

    https://www.economicshelp.org/macroe...ses-inflation/
    That growth with come hopefully by year end or next year it will be a perfect time to raise everything.

    Sorry didn't click on the article you posted I was just reading it and thought it would be a good place for it . Some seen it coming already many will whine Bea ch and complaint lol.

    Sent from my CLT-L04 using Tapatalk

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •