How we would survive?And how long?

Reading these posts about COVID,many different topics.Lots of emotions,lots of rights and lots of wrongs.
Lots of big egos,and few they just can not stop replying and replying and replying.
Sometimes entertainment,sometimes a pain in the a....e.

However ,the more i watch the world,and ourselves here on the forum,the more can not help ,but to raise a question to myself:

If a REALLY serious pandemic will ever occur(not bashing or belittling COVID-but based on statistics it is a kitten not a big bad lion it is made out to be)
(I feel for each fallen to COVID!)


How on earth we as society in Ontario-then Canada ,then int he world WOULD SURVIVE the real deal?Like the Black plaque or the Spanish flu?
How many days you guys think, we would last???

I bet 3 weeks tops,then the world as we knew it for the last 1-200 years would end.
Economy would tank,Governments will vanish,Society would fall apart,anarchy would take over.


Opinions?

ps-i am not a prepper-never was and never will be, never a doomsday believer either........but man oh man,what i see is scary.

Nope, I give it only till peoples fridges are empty.

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Originally Posted by fishermccann

Nope, I give it only till peoples fridges are empty.

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Would really depend on the person and the location. I know a few people in the Yukon who would be fine for a good long time, city folks would go first, pretty much the same as every major pandemic in the past, the high density populations would go and if they were restricted from going to the rural areas then they would survive. If the illness were a fast acting one like Ebola then it would not spread very far, it would kill itself off, but one that takes a long time to knock a person out of commission and is contagious pre-symptoms then it would be much worse.

To the OP, you say this is a kitten but the effects of this are unknown. There is talk of heart damage to people without any symptoms, so unless you have crystal ball you have no idea what this has done and will do, nobody does.

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Originally Posted by gbk

ps-i am not a prepper-never was and never will be, never a doomsday believer either........but man oh man,what i see is scary.

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What's a prepper? prepared for a week? a month? 2 months? a year? longer? If what you see is scary, why aren't you at least a little prepared? Considering what we just went through, I think folks who don't have a years worth of supplies on hand are being foolish.

To many variables.
Even the ones that are “prepared” can have everything undone by a mob.

We always laugh when our power goes out and look across at the Mennonite farms with the lanterns glowing in the windows. If we all disappeared they would mostly carry on. If society collapsed they would probably be over run by the mob.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't considered myself a prepper, but I am prepared for alot. I have everything from oil lanterns, firewood (enough for 4 years now). I do keep enough food on hand for 3 months so that would buy me time to find wild game and I have enough ammo to keep hunting almost indefinitely.

So could I hold out? I believe so. I doubt very much that people in the cities could or the average person. My siblings probably would not be able to. Could I find food or grow my own, very much so, even in the winter if I had to. Have spent some time reading about winter green houses and I have a barn that could be turned into a green house if I had to and a garden shed with a basement and a drilled well. I could also build if I had to a solar power system if I had to. In the intern I do have a generator for as long as fuel held out and I do have 100 litres of fuel.

Considering a Mob, it would have to be pretty big mob to head out of the city and make it 50 km's to my place and I would see them comming pretty quick. There isn't to much that I haven't thought about as to what I might do in various situations,but my number one thing would be to protect my children. One who lives 3000 km's away.

Should my wife or I get Covid most likely my wife would not survive as she is now full blown diabetic and has asthma and I will be diabetic probably in the next year Type 2 (I think) and it's iffy if I would survive, I use to have a great immune system but I doubt it's as good as it use to be.

But I will say one thing I do take precautions when necessary and wear a mask when in stores etc. But I am not going to hide in my house, males in my family don't normally live long and I could be dead tomorrow from a heart attack (The oldest in our family history prior to my Dad was 59 sometime in the 1800's with 1200 years of history). I'm still out and about going camping Sept 18 with some friends who all work from home.

Ide have no problem finding an isolated place in the woods on a small lake somewhere off grid in the shield and living the rest of my life in peace and tranquility. Love to know what people who do not have the skills to acquire their own sustenance would do. My uppity neighbours across the street who scoff at my hunting and fishing lifestyle would probably be begging for a handout within the first week. Probably could trade some table scraps for their first-born lol

The saying "9 meals from anarchy" makes sense to me. However long it takes for people to go a few days without food, then it goes off the rails.

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Lack of food Pfft
Take away the internet and electricity.
No City water city sewage.

Watch the show makes a guy think need more ammo

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Originally Posted by js4fn

Lack of food Pfft
Take away the internet and electricity.
No City water city sewage.

Watch the show makes a guy think need more ammo

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You nailed that one, no internet and no power to run cell systems. Can you imagine the brain anarchy in people that always have one in hand. On time delivery of food and everything else would go for a dump. No water and sewers back up, phew.

Living by yourself would be simpler but if you have a family it would be much more difficult.

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Originally Posted by Deer Wrastler

Ide have no problem finding an isolated place in the woods on a small lake somewhere off grid in the shield and living the rest of my life in peace and tranquility. Love to know what people who do not have the skills to acquire their own sustenance would do. My uppity neighbours across the street who scoff at my hunting and fishing lifestyle would probably be begging for a handout within the first week. Probably could trade some table scraps for their first-born lol

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I am a prepper and have "prepared for 7 yrs. Basically, you stock food for a year (all basic food group to make a balanced diet, calculating 2200 calories per day, per person. Most start out a food stockers (gotta get that years worth of food "put up") Once you have done that, that always leads to next question? What about long term - Then you think about self sufficiency, gardening, animal husbandry.

Many have no clue about 2 day "just in time" supply delivery system and how fragile it is to "events". COVID, was just a hint of how quickly food wars can begin - no imagine an EMP (Nuke or Solar Mass Ejection) which would wipe the electrical grid for up to 18 months. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has listed a well documented timeline of civil breakdown which would see 90% of the NA population dead in 12 to 18 months

I started putting up food in 1998 after the Ice Storm as we had to eat from a shelter for 30 days..Never again. I never went to a store for the 62 days of COVID.

The 5 main ares of prepping are:

1. Food Security - Food Storage - Farming/Animal husbandry, water storage
2. Medical preparedness - Medications/Anti-biotics, first aid training - natural herbs
3. Renewable or alternative power, heat, cooking - Solar, Wood Heat, water purification
4. Security - Home/Self/Hunting - Reloading, Firearms, trapping, fishing, site security plan
5. Skills - Cutting wood, fixing, hand tools, medical, building.

If an EMP or Nasty killer virus bests the world, overnight the world would be set back to 1800s lifestyle.

Look around at how many "Victory Gardens" were planted this year as a result of food shortages. People are finally thinking about self sufficiency again.

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Originally Posted by Bushmoose

What's a prepper? prepared for a week? a month? 2 months? a year? longer? If what you see is scary, why aren't you at least a little prepared? Considering what we just went through, I think folks who don't have a years worth of supplies on hand are being foolish.

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So go watch Canadian Prepper - he is getting more commercial - but has tons of great sensible info. Prepper Nurse - Fish Antibiotics, general medical preps. Don't watch any commercial TV shows - they are just stupid. Don't get hooked into buying all the prepper crap that is on the market.

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Originally Posted by Bushmoose

I think folks who don't have a years worth of supplies on hand are being foolish.

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With a wife and 2 daughters, I may have to set up a bunker to keep a yrs worth of Toilet paper stockpiled..:)

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Originally Posted by greatwhite;1122152.

In the intern I do have a generator for as long as fuel held out and I do have 100 litres of fuel.

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My genny says I get 8 hrs on a full tank ( 5 gallons) .... so being stingy with power consumption I might get 2-3 days from a Jerry can.

If you have 100 ltrs...or 26 gallons... you might get 10-15 days. So if the grid has fallen and there is no refueling of local gas stations...you will start to suffer like all the others did who didn't prep, only 15 days later :)

A good prepper can out survive...but for how long..whatever killed the rest of humanity will eventually catch up to you or someone who wants your stuff will kill you for it.

A good pepper obtains and keeps enough morphine on hand ..

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Originally Posted by Fisherman

You nailed that one, no internet and no power to run cell systems. Can you imagine the brain anarchy in people that always have one in hand. On time delivery of food and everything else would go for a dump. No water and sewers back up, phew.

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Remember the power outage in 2003? After the first 3 days,people were almost going berserk when they couldn't cook,access bank accounts,stores and gas stations were "cash only". It got fugly quick. Luckily,power restored after the 5th day or society would have been right off the rails.

We went a little more than 2 weeks with out power and my wife being pregnant.

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Originally Posted by trimmer21

Remember the power outage in 2003? After the first 3 days,people were almost going berserk when they couldn't cook,access bank accounts,stores and gas stations were "cash only". It got fugly quick. Luckily,power restored after the 5th day or society would have been right off the rails.

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There will still be fuel in tanks :).

But yes the genny will only last so long. Most important things will be food, shelter and heat. Heat and shelter would not be a problem and food I am sure I could make do, my grandfather had to poach to feed my mother and her sister. Eating lobster and venison all the time growing up. :).

This is kinda of why I have tried different ways of growing vegetables in the past, tried my hand at raising meat hens and eggs layers.

I noticed there seems to be a run on paper towl now.

I don't claim to be a prepper, but I am prepared for short term and believe I have the capability to use judgement for long term. But in reality a prepper will only be able to make it so long as well. We also have no idea what the next big thing might. Massive power outage across the world, Nuclear strike, Asteroid impact, heck it could be Aliens for all we know.

But life goes on.

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Originally Posted by MikePal

With a wife and 2 daughters, I may have to set up a bunker to keep a yrs worth of Toilet paper stockpiled..:)



My genny says I get 8 hrs on a full tank ( 5 gallons) .... so being stingy with power consumption I might get 2-3 days from a Jerry can.

If you have 100 ltrs...or 26 gallons... you might get 10-15 days. So if the grid has fallen and there is no refueling of local gas stations...you will start to suffer like all the others did who didn't prep, only 15 days later :)

A good prepper can out survive...but for how long..whatever killed the rest of humanity will eventually catch up to you or someone who wants your stuff will kill you for it.

A good pepper obtains and keeps enough morphine on hand ..

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People will survive ... and yes, the world will change ... but people will find a way to adjust and survive ... and probably with a lot less complaining!

So the scenario is real scary as to civil breakdown Post EMP - North Korea could launch a nuke (or China), to detonate at 300K above continental USA. One nuke the size of washing machine is all it takes - or look up Carrington Event of 1886, when a Solar Flair destroyed the very rudimentary telegraph lines.

Now before I premise, the probabilities is 1% chance of 1%, but it is real. So do go all crazy or have end of world dreams. Senisabilty must prevail.

Civil Breakdown Timeline (Post EMP)

24-48 hrs realization by masses
24-72 hrs all sanitation and sewer in cities stop working (high rises fill with sewage) - no water, no electricity for elevators
72hrs runs on Supermarkets, grocery stores as most people only have 2 weeks of food at home
NO fire, police, ambulances, military response as 85% of all vehicles, all communication systems are dead - You are on your own
4-7 days - first killings occur over food riots
1 week all hospital - with working (remote) generators run out of fuel, all those dependant on life support perish.
No fuel delivery system, no food, rail, truck, bus - 85% of all vehicles will not function or some will function with electrical faults of some sort.
1 week - armed gangs are starting to form to control, hoard, kil, and loot resources
2 weeks - armed gangs are established and using working vehicles to loot and steal food resources to control a black market
3 weeks - Mass exodus from cities as dead cant be picked up, personal safety make it a need, food is gone, the masses are searching for food and escaping the death trap and dire situation of cities.
4 weeks- first water borne illnesses are killing people, dysentery as all water ways are overflowing with sewage, shore water is undrinkable.
4 weeks 8-10% of city population will be dead, medication dependant people will have run out of medications.
4 weeks - first onset of starvation occurs with more people already weak from water, start to die off in great numbers
2 months - 30% of population will be dead
6 months - 50% of population will be dead
12 months - 90% has perished

You ask how could 90% be dead. The North American Electrical grid is controlled by 31 super nodes, transformer distribution stations. These stations are size of 10 football fields, take 1.5yrs to design and build and are currently manufactured overseas. With no transport structure, this will complicate restoral of service. Very little if anything infrastructure related is EMP hardened - even the Military. It is well known, and Trump released a strategy last week with a 10 yr plan to work with Private industry. It is not just that, most if sub stations, pole transformers will be destroyed, along with transmission lines that carry that power in communities. EMP waves E1, E2, E3 all have wave forms that destroy electrical circuits from 2" transmission lines, to micro chip transistors, nothing is safe, unless you have a "faraday cage". A FC could be as simple as galvanized garbage can (youtube), and is good to protect your "preps", of FRS, radio, solar gear, ect, ect.

All preppers eventually get the point when you ask yourself...what do I after a year and the food runs out I stored. It eventually takes you down the path to self sufficiency and a Homestead life. One in which, has defendable plan. As you move into this lifestyle of preparedness, you meet like minded people who form Mutual Assistance Group (MAG), who devise a plan to meet and defend a central location.

It is all fine if you move to the country, however the city will catch up to as the cities empty, because they are death centers.

All this for a 1% of 1% chance..

My .02 cents

Rule of 3's
3 minutes without air
3 days without water
30 days without food

This thread is mostly for fun. But just think of all the things in the world that run on a small chip. That says China on it. What if China has a back door to all these chips. Piss em off click chips die. Interesting huh

Prepper can have 7 years of food supply sound great till you have to bug out only carry so much.

I was into the prepping thing back in the 80's, man almost 40 yrs ago. We had a plan, a small community of like minded military guys that knew how to survive, evade and execute a plan. It was a fun diversion, but as it turns out, not once in the past 40 yrs have we had an occurrence for us to activate the plan. I wonder how our food stuffs held up all this time ...almost worth a trip back to Victoria to check it out. HaHa.

You still have 40 year old food stuffs stashed away someplace in Victoria?

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Originally Posted by MikePal

I was into the prepping thing back in the 80's, man almost 40 yrs ago. We had a plan, a small community of like minded military guys that knew how to survive, evade and execute a plan. It was a fun diversion, but as it turns out, not once in the past 40 yrs have we had an occurrence for us to activate the plan. I wonder how our food stuffs held up all this time ...almost worth a trip back to Victoria to check it out. HaHa.

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Originally Posted by trimmer21

Remember the power outage in 2003? After the first 3 days,people were almost going berserk when they couldn't cook,access bank accounts,stores and gas stations were "cash only". It got fugly quick. Luckily,power restored after the 5th day or society would have been right off the rails.

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And that was only a small area of NA, albeit, a lot of people, but a drop in the bucket of the entire North American grid. A lot of folks laugh and mock about prepping, but I doubt they were chuckling to much this past March and April when some of the store shelves were empty?

I got a week off with Pay from JDS Uniphase.

But the Ice storm of 1998 was better I made a bunch of money on the side removing trees.

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Originally Posted by trimmer21

Remember the power outage in 2003? After the first 3 days,people were almost going berserk when they couldn't cook,access bank accounts,stores and gas stations were "cash only". It got fugly quick. Luckily,power restored after the 5th day or society would have been right off the rails.

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Originally Posted by greatwhite

You still have 40 year old food stuffs stashed away someplace in Victoria?

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Who knows ..they were case lots of Military MREs...I don't know if they have a best before date HaHa..

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Originally Posted by greatwhite

I got a week off with Pay from JDS Uniphase.

But the Ice storm of 1998 was better I made a bunch of money on the side removing trees.

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Yes the Ice Storm was a good test. We had a 'working' farm then and were out of power for 21 days. No power on a farm means no water and animals have to be watered.

It was actually a good time to shake out the concept of self sufficiency. We didn't have a genny then so it was Napha lanterns and cook stoves....reminded me of a Wainwright RV ..6 weeks in the bush with the infantry. HaHa..

MikePal

And the generation before us went through WW2. My Dad was overseas 6 years from 1939- 1945.... sleeping in the ground not sure when the next meal would arrive let alone medics. Whenever I get tense about the pandemic I remember that .

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Originally Posted by Sharon

MikePal

And the generation before us went through WW2. My Dad was overseas 6 years from 1939- 1945.... sleeping in the ground not sure when the next meal would arrive let alone medics. Whenever I get tense about the pandemic I remember that .

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Some people's parents on here lived thru the Great Depression Sharon...being homeless and only soup kitchens for a meal were common out west.

Big change since then eh...now when people loose their jobs and face some hardships, the Government sends them $2k a month.

line052-thank you for the DHS prediction,never seen one , it seems quite plausible what they list as outcome of a major event.
I do not have anything against preppers guys,just i do not see prepping helping me.So i hope never nothing nasty will happen.I have stuff for a month for off grid living,but that is not what i see makes a prepper a prepper.
Do not live close to defendable and remote enough place,do not own a remote place either,and i recon by the time i would make it somewhere reasonable ,it would be a NO GO,or the place would be full of others.This is the time i wish i live in Alaska,Yukon or such.........Guelph does not cut it,and while we are not Toronto,i can see around me 1.5 million like minded people trying to do something i am about to do,at the same time. Central-South Western Ontario is too small for 1.5 million people living rural lifestyle.
Then there is a MOB,i think anyone having anything reasonable to be attacked for ,will be attacked and killed for their possession within a month.Regardless where they will be at(unless Alaska,Yukon,etc).
Anyhow,i watched few preppers on Youtube(spendin time there as much as here-so my wife says)and while You guys recommend Canadian Prepper,he is likely the least respected by me(right or wrong).
I saw few of his videos,maybe i agreed with some of his ideas,but when he said to dress to survive in minus 40 or so only with a high tech(and pricey)underlayer AND a large (even pricier BRAND BRAND BRAND)huge gooose down over coat,i lost all my interest to watch him.No layering ,just 2 pieces of clothing..... .I sure hope people will not die due of his advice ...............
Thanx for the ideas.keep them coming.

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Originally Posted by trimmer21

Remember the power outage in 2003? After the first 3 days,people were almost going berserk when they couldn't cook,access bank accounts,stores and gas stations were "cash only". It got fugly quick. Luckily,power restored after the 5th day or society would have been right off the rails.

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I was living down in Woodstock at the time and had power back the same night. Moved east of the city in 2009 and heard that they were out of power here for 4 days - bought a small generator not long after that !

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Originally Posted by MikePal

Some people's parents on here lived thru the Great Depression Sharon...being homeless and only soup kitchens for a meal were common out west.

Big change since then eh...now when people loose their jobs and face some hardships, the Government sends them $2k a month.

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Some people didn’t have any hardships at all and got the $2K/month just because !

My Grandfather poached after the war to feed his family. They had a couple of cows , chickens, he poached deer and poached Lobster. My mom was teased as only the poor kids ate lobster. Mom use to take her 22 to school to hunt at lunch time and after school.

Now you just hold your hand out.

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Originally Posted by 73hunter

Some people didn’t have any hardships at all and got the $2K/month just because !

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In the community lots of discussion exist over the 60 day golden window timeframe. What is the 60 days scenario - as for the timeline, the major part of looting, rioting, starvation and medical issues will be done and some form of normal will occur. Those that gathered in groups will be have a stronger position to survive.

For the Bug Out "to woods" isolation group, that survival assures continuity, however, unless you have stashed preps - what now. If you left your place undefended - will it still be there.

For the Bug In "In Place" group there is a well defined MAG and defense plan to protect the resources.

Both come with challenges and risks.

Again - Keep in mind a 1% of 1% change of occurrence. Try to keep things real and achievable.

Totally agree with your assessment of CP. However, he does delve into great scenarios which help your mind think differently. He also digs up a lot of facts, then summarizes accordingly. The 100 Common over the counter drug effectiveness over 10 yrs (DHS sponsored), which tested 100 type of Antibiotics, Tylenol, ect was a good video for understanding how long med preps last. I said Prepper Nurse before (it is Patriotic Nurse) is the name, she has great medical info.

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Originally Posted by gbk

line052-thank you for the DHS prediction,never seen one , it seems quite plausible what they list as outcome of a major event.
I do not have anything against preppers guys,just i do not see prepping helping me.So i hope never nothing nasty will happen.I have stuff for a month for off grid living,but that is not what i see makes a prepper a prepper.
Do not live close to defendable and remote enough place,do not own a remote place either,and i recon by the time i would make it somewhere reasonable ,it would be a NO GO,or the place would be full of others.This is the time i wish i live in Alaska,Yukon or such.........Guelph does not cut it,and while we are not Toronto,i can see around me 1.5 million like minded people trying to do something i am about to do,at the same time. Central-South Western Ontario is too small for 1.5 million people living rural lifestyle.
Then there is a MOB,i think anyone having anything reasonable to be attacked for ,will be attacked and killed for their possession within a month.Regardless where they will be at(unless Alaska,Yukon,etc).
Anyhow,i watched few preppers on Youtube(spendin time there as much as here-so my wife says)and while You guys recommend Canadian Prepper,he is likely the least respected by me(right or wrong).
I saw few of his videos,maybe i agreed with some of his ideas,but when he said to dress to survive in minus 40 or so only with a high tech(and pricey)underlayer AND a large (even pricier BRAND BRAND BRAND)huge gooose down over coat,i lost all my interest to watch him.No layering ,just 2 pieces of clothing..... .I sure hope people will not die due of his advice ...............
Thanx for the ideas.keep them coming.

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you wouldn't survive on your own you would be over run by the mobs you would have to create your own gang of like minded people to survive

Pretty much any scenario in a Revelations 6 discussion and our current culture and society is screwed.

As for gardens... in my big back yard when I expanded the garden some ... my wife bought 3 rolls of sod....
As for prep ... I bought some dry goods like oatmeal and canned goods.... and my wife still complains if we haven't finished the pasta sauce and I buy a new one...

There are a huge number of people that live even more what you can call credit card to hand to mouth out there that don't have a couple days food little alone the recommended emergency amounts.... before the people that shop once a week are in need there will be a huge percentage that will have been without food for days.... and without cash too. We definitely can't count on the wisdom of the gov't, ESPECIALLY the one we have now, just look at how the Wuhan Pneumonia turned out so far.

Solar flares... that could shut us down for weeks or years and are much more common...
https://www.space.com/12584-worst-so...s-history.html

.... fortunately the earth is a small target and flares like the Carrington event have so far missed us, I BELIEVE there were 2 or 3 of that size in the last cycle (11 years) but all went merrily off in other directions.
https://www.space.com/7224-150-years...lar-storm.html

Asteroids, solar flares, epidemics, mini ice ages, war, terrorism .... and an almost totally unprepared population .... what could go wrong .... well looking back at history... perhaps... something like when the Europeans arrived in North America would be comparable. It is estimated as many as 50,000,000 or more died, often just because no one was able to care for the sick so the entire populations of towns and cities died out. I recall that some of the early Spanish maps of the US south had over 60 large towns .... a century later it was 6 to 12 medium towns * If I remember right and the coverage was correct. Then throw in the wars started to get more furs for trading (destruction of Neutral,Huron, Petun and Erie Nations for example essentially in Ontario alone) and the population was 90% dead... as a comparison the Black Death was estimated at 40 to 50%.

P.S.
How often are there big CME.
https://earthsky.org/space/how-likel...rrington-event

Anyone within 200kms of a major city would be doomed.